Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 14/09, 03:00
Prediction: CSD Municipal vs Malacateco
Team pages: CSD Municipal · Malacateco
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.93Total
CSD Municipal2.15
Malacateco0.78
1X2
CSD Municipal
Draw
Malacateco
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
CSD Municipal
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Malacateco
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CSD Municipal
6–0
Malacateco
(6 last)
- CSD Municipal1-0Malacateco
- Malacateco1-3CSD Municipal
- CSD Municipal4-1Malacateco
- Malacateco2-3CSD Municipal
- Malacateco0-1CSD Municipal
- CSD Municipal4-2Malacateco
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CSD Municipal 1644 · Malacateco 1444
| CSD Municipal | Draw | Malacateco | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 21% | 11% |
| Market | 67% | 22% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSD Municipal (rating 1644 vs 1444).
- H2H favours CSD Municipal: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CSD Municipal | Malacateco | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.5 | 1.1 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.1 | 2.7 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.2 | 4.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CSD Municipal 6–0–0 Malacateco
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | CSD Municipal | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Malacateco |
| 07/02/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Malacateco | 1-3 HT 0-1 | CSD Municipal |
| 26/10/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | CSD Municipal | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Malacateco |
| 16/08/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Malacateco | 2-3 HT 2-2 | CSD Municipal |
| 06/04/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Malacateco | 0-1 HT 0-1 | CSD Municipal |
| 01/02/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | CSD Municipal | 4-2 HT 1-1 | Malacateco |
Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSD Municipal | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 19 |
| 2 | Antigua GFC | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | Deportivo San Pedro | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | Guastatoya | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 13 |
| 5 | Marquense | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 13 |
| 6 | Xelaju | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportivo Mixco | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 10 |
| 8 | Aurora | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 9 |
| 9 | CSD Comunicaciones | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 8 |
| 10 | Malacateco | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 8 |
| 11 | Coban Imperial | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 5 |
| 12 | Suchitepequez | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 5 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CSD Municipal | Malacateco |
|---|---|---|
| Aurora | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo San Pedro | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| CSD Comunicaciones | 1-0 W | 2-4 L |
| Xelaju | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Guastatoya | 0-1 L | 0-4 L |
| Coban Imperial | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: CSD Municipal (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CSD Municipal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 07/09 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 10/08 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 03/08 | Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
Malacateco
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 06/09 | Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 31/08 | Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/08 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 02/08 | Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 26/07 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 26/04 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 20/04 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CSD Municipal vs Malacateco?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CSD Municipal win (68%). Probabilities: CSD Municipal 68%, draw 22%, Malacateco 11%.
How many goals are expected in CSD Municipal vs Malacateco?
The model expects 2.93 goals (CSD Municipal 2.15 · Malacateco 0.78), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in CSD Municipal vs Malacateco?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.