Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 13/09, 19:00

Prediction: Deportivo Mixco vs Aurora

Team pages: Deportivo Mixco · Aurora

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Deportivo Mixco1.96

Aurora0.92

1X2

61% 23% 16%

Deportivo Mixco Draw Aurora

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Mixco 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Aurora 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Deportivo Mixco 3–2–1 Aurora (6 last)

Deportivo Mixco4-0Aurora
Aurora1-1Deportivo Mixco
Aurora1-0Deportivo Mixco
Deportivo Mixco2-2Aurora
Aurora0-1Deportivo Mixco
Deportivo Mixco1-0Aurora

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Mixco 1486 · Aurora 1471

	Deportivo Mixco	Draw	Aurora
Our model	60%	23%	16%
Market	61%	23%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo Mixco: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Mixco	Aurora
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.1	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.5	1.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.9

Odds Bet365

11.48

X3.90

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.20
2	5.50 → 5.50	Pinn 6.19 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:29 +12’	1.48	3.90	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:24 +17’	1.61	3.76	4.85
21:26 +17’	1.53▼	3.93▲	5.38▲
07:19 +79’	1.44▼	4.20▲	6.19▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Mixco 3–2–1 Aurora

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Deportivo Mixco	4-0 HT 0-0	Aurora
01/03/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Aurora	1-1 HT 1-0	Deportivo Mixco
30/11/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Aurora	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Mixco
20/09/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Deportivo Mixco	2-2 HT 0-0	Aurora
19/03/22 Guatemala Primera Division	Aurora	0-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Mixco
03/02/22 Guatemala Primera Division	Deportivo Mixco	1-0 HT 0-0	Aurora

Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSD Municipal	8	6	1	1	11	3	19
2	Antigua GFC	7	6	0	1	16	6	18
3	Deportivo San Pedro	8	5	1	2	12	7	16
4	Guastatoya	8	4	1	3	11	9	13
5	Marquense	8	4	0	4	10	13	12
6	Xelaju	7	3	2	2	13	7	11
7	Deportivo Mixco	8	3	1	4	11	14	10
8	Aurora	8	3	0	5	11	13	9
9	CSD Comunicaciones	8	2	2	4	7	11	8
10	Malacateco	8	2	2	4	9	14	8
11	Coban Imperial	8	1	2	5	7	13	5
12	Suchitepequez	8	1	2	5	7	15	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Mixco	Aurora
Deportivo San Pedro	0-2 L	1-2 L
CSD Comunicaciones	1-1 D	3-1 W
Xelaju	1-4 L	1-3 L
Guastatoya	4-2 W	0-1 L
Suchitepequez	2-0 W	3-2 W
CSD Municipal	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Aurora (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Mixco

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
05/09	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
31/08	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	1-4	6	4	L
23/08	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	3-0	4-2	7	4	W
15/08	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	2-3	6	9	L
08/08	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
01/08	Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	2-0	2	6	W
25/07	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
10/05	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-2	0-5	4	8	L
06/05	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-2	3	7	L

Aurora

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
05/09	Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-2	1	6	L
31/08	Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
22/08	Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	3-2	6	5	W
16/08	Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-2	1-2	6	7	L
08/08	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	3-0	3-1	6	6	W
04/08	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	1-3	2	7	L
25/07	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
26/04	Mictlán Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	1-1	4	10	D
19/04	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-4	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Mixco vs Aurora?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Mixco win (61%). Probabilities: Deportivo Mixco 61%, draw 23%, Aurora 16%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Mixco vs Aurora?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Deportivo Mixco 1.96 · Aurora 0.92), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Mixco vs Aurora?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.