Football · Brazil Serie C · 10/10, 22:00

Prediction: Ferroviaria SP vs Inter de Limeira

Team pages: Ferroviaria SP · Inter de Limeira

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

Ferroviaria SP1.48

Inter de Limeira1.05

1X2

46% 29% 26%

Ferroviaria SP Draw Inter de Limeira

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Ferroviaria SP 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDWLWDWWDL

Inter de Limeira 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

LWLDDDDDWD

Head-to-head

Ferroviaria SP 2–2–2 Inter de Limeira (6 last)

Inter de Limeira3-3Ferroviaria SP
Ferroviaria SP2-0Inter de Limeira
Ferroviaria SP2-1Inter de Limeira
Inter de Limeira1-0Ferroviaria SP
Ferroviaria SP1-2Inter de Limeira
Ferroviaria SP0-0Inter de Limeira

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ferroviaria SP 1537 · Inter de Limeira 1487

	Ferroviaria SP	Draw	Inter de Limeira
Our model	46%	28%	26%
Market	46%	29%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferroviaria SP (rating 1537 vs 1487).
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 12.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ferroviaria SP	Inter de Limeira
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 8.3	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7 / 0.1	5.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.10

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 1.95▼	Bet365 1.95
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.21
2	3.40 → 3.50▲	Pinn 4.07 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:31 +4’	2.00	3.10	3.40
22:07 +7’	1.95▼	3.10	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:26 +9’	1.67	3.40	5.03
20:21 +113’	1.89▲	3.17▼	4.02▼
22:55 +240’	1.87▼	3.21▲	4.07▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferroviaria SP 2–2–2 Inter de Limeira

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/09/26 Brazil Serie C	Inter de Limeira	3-3 HT 1-1	Ferroviaria SP
21/06/26 Brazil Serie C	Ferroviaria SP	2-0 HT 1-0	Inter de Limeira
22/01/26 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2	Ferroviaria SP	2-1 HT 2-0	Inter de Limeira
08/07/23 Brazil Serie D	Inter de Limeira	1-0 HT 0-0	Ferroviaria SP
20/05/23 Brazil Serie D	Ferroviaria SP	1-2 HT 0-1	Inter de Limeira
05/03/23 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Ferroviaria SP	0-0 HT 0-0	Inter de Limeira

Standings · Brazil Serie C · Brasileiro Serie C 2026, Main Round, Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ferroviaria SP	5	2	2	1	8	7	8
2	Inter de Limeira	5	1	4	0	11	9	7
3	Brusque	5	1	3	1	9	9	6
4	Paysandu	5	1	1	3	4	7	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ferroviaria SP	Inter de Limeira
Paysandu	0-1 L	2-0 W
Brusque	1-1 D	2-2 D
Figueirense	2-2 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Inter de Limeira (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ferroviaria SP

DDWLWDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-1	11	8	L
27/09	Brusque Brazil Serie C	0-1	1-1	11	9	D
20/09	Brusque Brazil Serie C	1-1	3-2	10	11	W
13/09	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
05/09	Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C	1-1	3-3	6	5	D
29/08	AD Confianca Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
23/08	Ypiranga RS Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
18/08	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	2-0	4-0	7	9	W
08/08	Figueirense Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
25/07	Maranhao Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	11	8	D

Inter de Limeira

LWLDDDDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Brusque Brazil Serie C	2-1	2-2	9	10	D
27/09	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
20/09	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
13/09	Brusque Brazil Serie C	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
05/09	Ferroviaria SP Brazil Serie C	1-1	3-3	4	5	D
29/08	Caxias RS Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
23/08	Figueirense Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
16/08	Brusque Brazil Serie C	1-1	2-3	2	4	L
09/08	Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
28/07	Guarani Brazil Serie C	1-1	1-3	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ferroviaria SP vs Inter de Limeira?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ferroviaria SP win (46%). Probabilities: Ferroviaria SP 46%, draw 29%, Inter de Limeira 26%.

How many goals are expected in Ferroviaria SP vs Inter de Limeira?

The model expects 2.54 goals (Ferroviaria SP 1.48 · Inter de Limeira 1.05), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ferroviaria SP vs Inter de Limeira?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.