Football · Türkiye Super Lig · 12/09, 19:00

Prediction: Alanyaspor vs Goztepe

Team pages: Alanyaspor · Goztepe

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Alanyaspor1.34

Goztepe1.14

1X2

40% 29% 31%

Alanyaspor Draw Goztepe

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Alanyaspor 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDLLDWLDWL

Goztepe 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDDWDWLDLL

Head-to-head

Alanyaspor 3–3–0 Goztepe (6 last)

Goztepe2-2Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor1-0Goztepe
Goztepe0-1Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor1-1Goztepe
Goztepe0-2Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor2-2Goztepe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alanyaspor 1469 · Goztepe 1530

	Alanyaspor	Draw	Goztepe
Our model	40%	30%	31%
Market	40%	29%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Goztepe (rating 1469 vs 1530).
H2H favours Alanyaspor: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alanyaspor	Goztepe
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	44/22/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.3	1.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	5.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.20

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:27 +18’	2.30	3.20	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alanyaspor 3–3–0 Goztepe

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Türkiye Super Lig	Goztepe	2-2 HT 1-1	Alanyaspor
19/10/25 Türkiye Super Lig	Alanyaspor	1-0 HT 0-0	Goztepe
02/02/25 Türkiye Super Lig	Goztepe	0-1 HT 0-1	Alanyaspor
23/08/24 Türkiye Super Lig	Alanyaspor	1-1 HT 0-1	Goztepe
19/03/22 Türkiye Super Lig	Goztepe	0-2 HT 0-0	Alanyaspor
31/10/21 Türkiye Super Lig	Alanyaspor	2-2 HT 1-0	Goztepe

Standings · Türkiye Super Lig

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Galatasaray	4	3	1	0	12	6	10
2	Besiktas	4	3	0	1	9	4	9
3	Kocaelispor	4	3	0	1	5	3	9
4	Trabzonspor	4	2	1	1	9	4	7
5	Amedspor	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
6	Genclerbirligi	4	2	1	1	4	7	7
7	Fenerbahce	4	2	0	2	8	6	6
8	Kasimpasa	4	1	3	0	5	4	6
9	Caykur Rizespor	3	2	0	1	3	3	6
10	Istanbul Basaksehir	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
11	Alanyaspor	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
11	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
13	Samsunspor	4	1	1	2	5	6	4
14	Corum Belediyespor	4	1	1	2	7	9	4
15	Erzurumspor FK	4	1	1	2	2	8	4
16	Eyupspor	4	1	0	3	2	6	3
17	Goztepe	3	0	1	2	5	7	1
18	Konyaspor	4	0	0	4	3	8	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alanyaspor	Goztepe
Gazisehir Gaziantep FK	1-1 D	2-1 W
Antalyaspor	0-0 D	2-0 W
Samsunspor	2-3 L	3-3 D
Kasimpasa	0-1 L	3-3 D
Trabzonspor	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Goztepe (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alanyaspor

DDLLDWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
23/08	Besiktas Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	1-0	7	0	W
15/08	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
16/05	Fatih Karagumruk Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	1-2	4	1	L
09/05	Kayserispor Türkiye Super Lig	2-1	3-1	1	4	W
03/05	Antalyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
27/04	Samsunspor Türkiye Super Lig	0-2	2-3	12	5	L
19/04	Kasimpasa Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
11/04	Trabzonspor Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
04/04	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	1-1	2	5	D

Goztepe

LDDWDWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Galatasaray Türkiye Super Lig	1-1	2-3	2	4	L
23/08	Genclerbirligi Türkiye Super Lig	–	0-1	–	–	L
17/08	Samsunspor Türkiye Super Lig	1-2	3-3	8	4	D
16/05	Samsunspor Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	0-3	4	7	L
09/05	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
02/05	Trabzonspor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	1-1	3	10	D
25/04	Antalyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	2-0	2-0	4	2	W
18/04	Kocaelispor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	1-1	0	12	D
12/04	Kasimpasa Türkiye Super Lig	1-1	3-3	4	7	D
08/04	Galatasaray Türkiye Super Lig	0-2	1-3	4	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alanyaspor vs Goztepe?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alanyaspor win (40%). Probabilities: Alanyaspor 40%, draw 29%, Goztepe 31%.

How many goals are expected in Alanyaspor vs Goztepe?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Alanyaspor 1.34 · Goztepe 1.14), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Goztepe?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.