Football · Türkiye Super Lig · 14/09, 19:00

Prediction: Gazisehir Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahce

Team pages: Gazisehir Gaziantep FK · Fenerbahce

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Gazisehir Gaziantep FK1.07

Fenerbahce2.14

1X2

17% 22% 61%

Gazisehir Gaziantep FK Draw Fenerbahce

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Gazisehir Gaziantep FK 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLDWLW

Fenerbahce 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWWDLWWL

Head-to-head

Gazisehir Gaziantep FK 0–6 Fenerbahce (6 last)

Fenerbahce4-1Gazisehir Gaziantep FK
Gazisehir Gaziantep FK0-4Fenerbahce
Gazisehir Gaziantep FK0-4Fenerbahce
Gazisehir Gaziantep FK1-3Fenerbahce
Gazisehir Gaziantep FK1-4Fenerbahce
Fenerbahce3-1Gazisehir Gaziantep FK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gazisehir Gaziantep FK 1456 · Fenerbahce 1602

	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK	Draw	Fenerbahce
Our model	17%	22%	61%
Market	17%	23%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fenerbahce (rating 1456 vs 1602).
H2H favours Fenerbahce: 6-0-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK	Fenerbahce
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	2.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	2.7 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.50

X4.10

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.90

2 (-1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 15:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.75 → 5.50▼	Pinn 5.73 ★
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.22
2	1.50 → 1.53▲	Pinn 1.55

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:32 +10’	5.75	4.10	1.50
02:50 +4’	5.25▼	4.00▼	1.55▲
15:53 +1’	5.50▲	4.10▲	1.53▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:55 +107’	5.58	4.22	1.56
17:33 +42’	5.57▼	4.17▼	1.57▲
23:13 +70’	5.39▼	4.15▼	1.59▲
11:54 +9’	5.62▲	4.23▲	1.56▼
21:26 +53’	5.53▼	4.20▼	1.57▲
23:05 +348’	5.62▲	4.22▲	1.56▼
10:07 +31’	5.79▲	4.27▲	1.54▼
13:39 +135’	5.73▼	4.22▼	1.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gazisehir Gaziantep FK 0–0–6 Fenerbahce

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/03/26 Türkiye Super Lig	Fenerbahce	4-1 HT 1-0	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK
04/03/26 Türkiye Cup	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK	0-4 HT 0-1	Fenerbahce
27/10/25 Türkiye Super Lig	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK	0-4 HT 0-2	Fenerbahce
26/04/25 Türkiye Super Lig	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK	1-3 HT 1-0	Fenerbahce
27/02/25 Türkiye Cup	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK	1-4 HT 0-3	Fenerbahce
02/12/24 Türkiye Super Lig	Fenerbahce	3-1 HT 1-1	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK

Standings · Türkiye Super Lig

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Besiktas	5	4	0	1	12	4	12
2	Galatasaray	4	3	1	0	12	6	10
3	Kocaelispor	4	3	0	1	5	3	9
4	Caykur Rizespor	5	3	0	2	5	4	9
5	Alanyaspor	5	2	2	1	6	5	8
6	Trabzonspor	5	2	1	2	9	5	7
7	Corum Belediyespor	5	2	1	2	12	10	7
8	Amedspor	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
8	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
10	Genclerbirligi	4	2	1	1	4	7	7
11	Fenerbahce	4	2	0	2	8	6	6
12	Kasimpasa	4	1	3	0	5	4	6
13	Istanbul Basaksehir	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
14	Samsunspor	5	1	1	3	6	11	4
15	Erzurumspor FK	5	1	1	3	2	11	4
16	Konyaspor	5	1	0	4	4	8	3
17	Eyupspor	5	1	0	4	2	8	3
18	Goztepe	5	0	2	3	9	13	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK	Fenerbahce
Caykur Rizespor	1-2 L	2-2 D
Eyupspor	1-0 W	3-3 D
Istanbul Basaksehir	1-2 L	3-1 W
Besiktas	0-2 L	1-2 L
Kayserispor	3-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Fenerbahce (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gazisehir Gaziantep FK

LWLLLLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Goztepe Türkiye Super Lig	4-0	4-2	3	6	W
29/08	Caykur Rizespor Türkiye Super Lig	0-2	1-2	8	3	L
23/08	Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
15/08	Alanyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	1-1	0	6	D
16/05	Istanbul Basaksehir Türkiye Super Lig	0-2	1-2	6	5	L
09/05	Goztepe Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
01/05	Besiktas Türkiye Super Lig	0-2	0-2	8	1	L
25/04	Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	0-3	5	4	L
20/04	Kayserispor Türkiye Super Lig	2-0	3-0	5	5	W
13/04	Caykur Rizespor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	1-2	1	6	L

Fenerbahce

WDLWWDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Besiktas Türkiye Super Lig	1-1	1-2	2	7	L
30/08	Samsunspor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
22/08	Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	3-1	4-2	7	3	W
15/08	Genclerbirligi Türkiye Super Lig	1-1	1-2	12	1	L
17/05	Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig	0-2	3-3	6	7	D
09/05	Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	3-0	2	4	W
02/05	Istanbul Basaksehir Türkiye Super Lig	1-1	3-1	10	4	W
26/04	Galatasaray Türkiye Super Lig	0-1	0-3	4	11	L
17/04	Caykur Rizespor Türkiye Super Lig	0-0	2-2	7	8	D
11/04	Kayserispor Türkiye Super Lig	1-0	4-0	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gazisehir Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahce?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Fenerbahce win (61%). Probabilities: Gazisehir Gaziantep FK 17%, draw 22%, Fenerbahce 61%.

How many goals are expected in Gazisehir Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahce?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Gazisehir Gaziantep FK 1.07 · Fenerbahce 2.14), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Gazisehir Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahce?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.