Football · Australia New South Wales NPL Women · 05/09, 09:00

Prediction: University NSW (W) vs APIA Leichardt (W)

Team pages: University NSW (W) · APIA Leichardt (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

University NSW (W)1.31

APIA Leichardt (W)1.32

1X2

37% 27% 37%

University NSW (W) Draw APIA Leichardt (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

University NSW (W) 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

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APIA Leichardt (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLDDWDWL

Head-to-head

University NSW (W) 2–2–2 APIA Leichardt (W) (6 last)

University NSW (W)1-1APIA Leichardt (W)
APIA Leichardt (W)0-1University NSW (W)
APIA Leichardt (W)1-1University NSW (W)
APIA Leichardt (W)2-0University NSW (W)
University NSW (W)3-1APIA Leichardt (W)
APIA Leichardt (W)2-1University NSW (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · University NSW (W) 1541 · APIA Leichardt (W) 1531

	University NSW (W)	Draw	APIA Leichardt (W)
Our model	35%	29%	36%
Market	37%	25%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	University NSW (W)	APIA Leichardt (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.8	2.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.8	2.6 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.4 / 0	2.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.60

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 08:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 3.10▲	Pinn 3.29 ★
X	3.60 → 3.80▲	Bet365 3.80
2	2.38 → 1.90▼	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
03:02 +14’	2.40	3.60	2.38
15:33 +5’	2.45▲	3.60	2.35▼
23:21 +7’	2.50▲	3.60	2.30▼
08:46 +6’	3.10▲	3.80▲	1.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:17	2.38	3.28	2.51
23:28	2.72▲	3.28	2.21▼
05:18 +1’	2.83▲	3.29▲	2.14▼
08:52	3.29▲	3.73▲	1.85▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 3 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · University NSW (W) 2–2–2 APIA Leichardt (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	University NSW (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	APIA Leichardt (W)
21/05/26 Australia New South Wales Cup Women	APIA Leichardt (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	University NSW (W)
26/04/26 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	APIA Leichardt (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	University NSW (W)
07/09/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	APIA Leichardt (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	University NSW (W)
22/06/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	University NSW (W)	3-1 HT 3-0	APIA Leichardt (W)
23/03/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women	APIA Leichardt (W)	2-1 HT 1-1	University NSW (W)

Standings · Australia New South Wales NPL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bulls FC Academy (W)	26	18	7	1	67	24	61
2	University NSW (W)	26	16	9	1	49	20	57
3	APIA Leichardt (W)	26	16	4	6	65	36	52
4	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W)	26	15	5	6	55	34	50
5	Northern Tigers FC (W)	26	11	6	9	42	35	39
6	Sydney Olympic FC (W)	26	11	4	11	46	41	37
7	Macarthur Rams (W)	26	10	5	11	39	42	35
8	Manly Utd (W)	26	8	10	8	41	35	34
9	Sydney University (W)	26	8	8	10	50	47	32
10	Hills United FC (W)	26	8	4	14	33	35	28
11	Gladesville Ravens (W)	26	7	5	14	34	51	26
12	NWS Spirit (W)	26	8	2	16	33	79	26
13	Illawarra Stingrays (W)	26	4	7	15	21	46	19
14	Western City Rangers (W)	26	3	2	21	29	79	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	University NSW (W)	APIA Leichardt (W)
NWS Spirit (W)	1-0 W	2-1 W
Manly Utd (W)	2-2 D	2-1 W
Gladesville Ravens (W)	2-2 D	4-2 W
Sydney Olympic FC (W)	0-0 D	1-2 L
Northern Tigers FC (W)	0-0 D	1-2 L
Bulls FC Academy (W)	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: APIA Leichardt (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

University NSW (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Hills United FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
23/08	Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	2-1	4	0	W
15/08	NWS Spirit (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
09/08	Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	1-0	7	2	W
02/08	Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-1	2-2	6	0	D
25/07	APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-1	1-1	5	1	D
19/07	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-1	2-2	6	0	D
11/07	Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
04/07	Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
28/06	Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-0	0-1	4	2	L

APIA Leichardt (W)

WWWLDDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	1-2	0	2	L
23/08	Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-2	4-2	7	2	W
16/08	Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	1-1	11	2	D
09/08	Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	2-2	4-2	2	4	W
02/08	Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-2	2-2	5	2	D
25/07	University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-1	1-1	7	1	D
19/07	Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-1	1-2	7	2	L
11/07	Western City Rangers (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	3-1	5-1	5	4	W
05/07	NWS Spirit (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
28/06	Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women	0-1	2-1	5	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in University NSW (W) vs APIA Leichardt (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a University NSW (W) win (37%). Probabilities: University NSW (W) 37%, draw 27%, APIA Leichardt (W) 37%.

How many goals are expected in University NSW (W) vs APIA Leichardt (W)?

The model expects 2.63 goals (University NSW (W) 1.31 · APIA Leichardt (W) 1.32), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in University NSW (W) vs APIA Leichardt (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.