Football · Australia NPL Queensland Women · 04/09, 10:00

Prediction: Lions FC (W) vs Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)

Team pages: Lions FC (W) · Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Lions FC (W)1.35

Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)1.64

1X2

31% 26% 44%

Lions FC (W) Draw Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Lions FC (W) 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Lions FC (W) 1–5 Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) (6 last)

Lions FC (W)3-1Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)
Lions FC (W)0-2Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)
Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)1-0Lions FC (W)
Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)2-1Lions FC (W)
Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)4-3Lions FC (W)
Lions FC (W)3-4Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lions FC (W) 1567 · Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) 1567

	Lions FC (W)	Draw	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)
Our model	31%	26%	43%
Market	31%	25%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Eastern Suburbs NPL (W): 5-0-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lions FC (W)	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 0.8	2.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	1.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.8	2.1 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.9 / 0.2	0.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.60

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 1 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 04:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.88▲	Bet365 2.88
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	2.25 → 2.05▼	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:57 +12’	2.60	3.50	2.25
03:16 +5’	3.40▲	3.70▲	1.83▼
04:14 +7’	2.88▼	3.60▼	2.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lions FC (W) 1–0–5 Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Lions FC (W)	3-1 HT 0-1	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)
03/05/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Lions FC (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)
14/03/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Lions FC (W)
02/08/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	Lions FC (W)
29/06/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)	4-3 HT 2-1	Lions FC (W)
24/05/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Lions FC (W)	3-4 HT 1-3	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland Women · Queensland NPL, Women 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gold Coast Knights (W)	27	19	4	4	74	21	61
2	Lions FC (W)	27	18	4	5	71	24	58
3	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)	27	18	4	5	64	20	58
4	Brisbane City (W)	27	14	8	5	57	22	50
5	Brisbane Olympic FC (W)	27	11	8	8	40	34	41
6	Gold Coast United (W)	27	9	10	8	40	37	37
7	Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W)	27	9	2	16	34	43	29
8	Capalaba (W)	27	8	2	17	35	61	26
9	FQ QAS Women	27	7	1	19	48	84	22
10	Souths United NPL (W)	27	0	1	26	15	132	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lions FC (W)	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)
Gold Coast Knights (W)	0-3 L	2-0 W
FQ QAS Women	7-1 W	3-0 W
Gold Coast United (W)	1-1 D	0-0 D
Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W)	2-0 W	2-0 W
Souths United NPL (W)	6-1 W	14-0 W
Capalaba (W)	3-1 W	5-0 W
Brisbane City (W)	1-0 W	2-2 D
Brisbane Olympic FC (W)	5-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 1 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lions FC (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
15/08	FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women	5-0	7-1	2	0	W
12/08	Gold Coast United (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
07/08	Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
01/08	Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	2-1	6-1	12	0	W
29/07	Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	3-0	4	0	W
24/07	Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-1	3-1	5	0	W
18/07	Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
11/07	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-1	3-1	6	2	W
04/07	Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	5-0	4	0	W

Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)

DLLLWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	2-0	2-2	5	0	D
15/08	Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	6-0	14-0	11	0	W
07/08	Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	2-0	2-0	0	0	W
01/08	Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	2-0	1	0	W
25/07	FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
19/07	Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	3-0	5-0	4	0	W
14/07	Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	0-1	9	0	L
11/07	Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	1-3	4	2	L
05/07	Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-1	0-1	5	0	L
30/06	Gold Coast United (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	0-0	7	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lions FC (W) vs Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) win (44%). Probabilities: Lions FC (W) 31%, draw 26%, Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) 44%.

How many goals are expected in Lions FC (W) vs Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Lions FC (W) 1.35 · Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) 1.64), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lions FC (W) vs Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.