Football · Australia NPL Queensland Women · 29/08, 07:00

Prediction: Gold Coast Knights (W) vs Lions FC (W)

Team pages: Gold Coast Knights (W) · Lions FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

Gold Coast Knights (W)2.08

Lions FC (W)1.28

1X2

55% 23% 22%

Gold Coast Knights (W) Draw Lions FC (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Gold Coast Knights (W) 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWWLWWLW

Lions FC (W) 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWWDW

Head-to-head

Gold Coast Knights (W) 4–1–1 Lions FC (W) (6 last)

Gold Coast Knights (W)0-3Lions FC (W)
Gold Coast Knights (W)2-0Lions FC (W)
Lions FC (W)2-4Gold Coast Knights (W)
Gold Coast Knights (W)4-0Lions FC (W)
Gold Coast Knights (W)1-1Lions FC (W)
Lions FC (W)0-2Gold Coast Knights (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gold Coast Knights (W) 1582 · Lions FC (W) 1580

	Gold Coast Knights (W)	Draw	Lions FC (W)
Our model	55%	23%	22%
Market	55%	22%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gold Coast Knights (W): 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.5 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gold Coast Knights (W)	Lions FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	3.4 / 0.7	3.1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 7.9	2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.5 / 0.1	0.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.00

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
10:09 +5’	1.61	4.00	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gold Coast Knights (W) 4–1–1 Lions FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/07/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Gold Coast Knights (W)	0-3 HT 0-1	Lions FC (W)
30/06/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Gold Coast Knights (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Lions FC (W)
28/02/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Lions FC (W)	2-4 HT 1-2	Gold Coast Knights (W)
05/09/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Gold Coast Knights (W)	4-0 HT 1-0	Lions FC (W)
12/07/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Gold Coast Knights (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Lions FC (W)
03/05/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Lions FC (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	Gold Coast Knights (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland Women · Queensland NPL, Women 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gold Coast Knights (W)	27	19	4	4	74	21	61
2	Lions FC (W)	27	18	4	5	71	24	58
3	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)	27	18	4	5	64	20	58
4	Brisbane City (W)	27	14	8	5	57	22	50
5	Brisbane Olympic FC (W)	27	11	8	8	40	34	41
6	Gold Coast United (W)	27	9	10	8	40	37	37
7	Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W)	27	9	2	16	34	43	29
8	Capalaba (W)	27	8	2	17	35	61	26
9	FQ QAS Women	27	7	1	19	48	84	22
10	Souths United NPL (W)	27	0	1	26	15	132	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gold Coast Knights (W)	Lions FC (W)
Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W)	3-0 W	2-0 W
Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)	0-2 L	3-1 W
Brisbane City (W)	2-0 W	1-0 W
Gold Coast United (W)	1-0 W	1-1 D
Souths United NPL (W)	3-0 W	6-1 W
FQ QAS Women	6-0 W	7-1 W
Brisbane Olympic FC (W)	1-1 D	5-0 W
Capalaba (W)	5-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 1 L	7 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Gold Coast Knights (W) (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gold Coast Knights (W)

WWDWWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	3-0	7	0	W
07/08	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-2	0-2	9	0	L
04/08	Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	2-0	4	0	W
01/08	Gold Coast United (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
29/07	Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-1	0-3	3	0	L
25/07	Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	3-0	19	3	W
17/07	FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women	3-0	6-0	4	1	W
11/07	Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-1	1-1	3	0	D
08/07	Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	8-0	13-0	16	1	W
04/07	Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	2-0	5-1	8	0	W

Lions FC (W)

LWWWWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women	5-0	7-1	2	0	W
12/08	Gold Coast United (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
07/08	Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
01/08	Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	2-1	6-1	12	0	W
29/07	Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	3-0	4	0	W
24/07	Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-1	3-1	5	0	W
18/07	Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
11/07	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-1	3-1	6	2	W
04/07	Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	5-0	4	0	W
30/06	Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-1	0-2	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gold Coast Knights (W) vs Lions FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gold Coast Knights (W) win (55%). Probabilities: Gold Coast Knights (W) 55%, draw 23%, Lions FC (W) 22%.

How many goals are expected in Gold Coast Knights (W) vs Lions FC (W)?

The model expects 3.36 goals (Gold Coast Knights (W) 2.08 · Lions FC (W) 1.28), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gold Coast Knights (W) vs Lions FC (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.