Football · Mexico Segunda Division · 29/08, 19:00
Prediction: Mineros de Fresnillo vs Real Apodaca FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.86Total
Mineros de Fresnillo1.14
Real Apodaca FC1.72
1X2
Mineros de Fresnillo
Draw
Real Apodaca FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Mineros de Fresnillo
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Real Apodaca FC
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Mineros de Fresnillo
2–2
Real Apodaca FC
(4 last)
- Mineros de Fresnillo2-0Real Apodaca FC
- Real Apodaca FC2-1Mineros de Fresnillo
- Real Apodaca FC2-0Mineros de Fresnillo
- Mineros de Fresnillo4-2Real Apodaca FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mineros de Fresnillo 1512 · Real Apodaca FC 1541
| Mineros de Fresnillo | Draw | Real Apodaca FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 26% | 50% |
| Market | 24% | 26% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mineros de Fresnillo | Real Apodaca FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.5 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.3 | 2.2 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.2 | 4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mineros de Fresnillo 2–0–2 Real Apodaca FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/01/25 Mexico Segunda Division | Mineros de Fresnillo | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Real Apodaca FC |
| 06/11/24 Mexico Segunda Division | Real Apodaca FC | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Mineros de Fresnillo |
| 28/01/24 Mexico Segunda Division | Real Apodaca FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Mineros de Fresnillo |
| 27/08/23 Mexico Segunda Division | Mineros de Fresnillo | 4-2 HT 2-0 | Real Apodaca FC |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mineros de Fresnillo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04 | Cimarrones de Sonora FC Mexico Segunda Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 15/04 | Cimarrones de Sonora FC Mexico Segunda Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 11/04 | Alacranes de Durango Mexico Segunda Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 28/03 | CF Reboceros La Piedad Mexico Segunda Division |
2-1 | 6-2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 21/03 | Colima Mexico Segunda Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 14/03 | Universidad Guadalajara II Mexico Segunda Division |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 08/03 | Los Cabos United Mexico Segunda Division |
2-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 28/02 | Tigres de Álica FC Mexico Segunda Division |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 21/02 | Tritones Vallarta MFC Mexico Segunda Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 14/02 | Estudiantes Tecos Mexico Segunda Division |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
Real Apodaca FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05 | Deportiva Venados Mexico Segunda Division |
1-4 | 2-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 01/05 | Deportiva Venados Mexico Segunda Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 27/04 | Inter Playa del Carmen Mexico Segunda Division |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 24/04 | Inter Playa del Carmen Mexico Segunda Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 11/04 | Correcaminos II Mexico Segunda Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 29/03 | Club Calor Mexico Segunda Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 24/03 | Zitacuaro CF Mexico Segunda Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/03 | Atletico Hidalgo Mexico Segunda Division |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 07/03 | Cordobes Futbol Club Mexico Segunda Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 01/03 | Halcones de Zapopan Mexico Segunda Division |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mineros de Fresnillo vs Real Apodaca FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Apodaca FC win (50%). Probabilities: Mineros de Fresnillo 24%, draw 26%, Real Apodaca FC 50%.
How many goals are expected in Mineros de Fresnillo vs Real Apodaca FC?
The model expects 2.86 goals (Mineros de Fresnillo 1.14 · Real Apodaca FC 1.72), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Mineros de Fresnillo vs Real Apodaca FC?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.