Football · Mexico Segunda Division · 29/08, 02:00

Prediction: Chapulineros de Oaxaca vs Jaguares de Chiapas FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

Chapulineros de Oaxaca1.19

Jaguares de Chiapas FC1.32

1X2

33% 28% 39%

Chapulineros de Oaxaca Draw Jaguares de Chiapas FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Chapulineros de Oaxaca 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LDLDLLLLDD

Jaguares de Chiapas FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWWWLLLDD

Head-to-head

Chapulineros de Oaxaca 0–2–0 Jaguares de Chiapas FC (2 last)

Jaguares de Chiapas FC0-0Chapulineros de Oaxaca
Chapulineros de Oaxaca2-2Jaguares de Chiapas FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chapulineros de Oaxaca 1430 · Jaguares de Chiapas FC 1483

	Chapulineros de Oaxaca	Draw	Jaguares de Chiapas FC
Our model	32%	29%	38%
Market	33%	28%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jaguares de Chiapas FC (rating 1430 vs 1483).
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chapulineros de Oaxaca	Jaguares de Chiapas FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.3	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	3.2 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.25

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
10:37 +16’	2.70	3.25	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chapulineros de Oaxaca 0–2–0 Jaguares de Chiapas FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Mexico Segunda Division	Jaguares de Chiapas FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Chapulineros de Oaxaca
15/11/25 Mexico Segunda Division	Chapulineros de Oaxaca	2-2 HT 0-0	Jaguares de Chiapas FC

Standings · Mexico Segunda Division · Liga Primera Premier 26/27, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chapulineros de Oaxaca	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Club Celaya FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportiva Venados	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Inter Playa del Carmen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Jaguares de Chiapas FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Montaneses FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pioneros de Cancun	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Racing de Veracruz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tapachula Soconusco FC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chapulineros de Oaxaca	Jaguares de Chiapas FC
Pioneros de Cancun	1-1 D	0-2 L
Montaneses FC	0-2 L	3-3 D
Club Celaya	0-1 L	1-1 D
Racing de Veracruz	0-0 D	0-2 L
Tapachula Soconusco FC	0-1 L	1-3 L
Deportiva Venados	1-1 D	1-4 L
Neza FC	2-3 L	6-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Chapulineros de Oaxaca (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chapulineros de Oaxaca

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/04	Pioneros de Cancun Mexico Segunda Division	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
29/03	Jaguares de Chiapas FC Mexico Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
21/03	Montaneses FC Mexico Segunda Division	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
14/03	Inter Playa del Carmen Mexico Segunda Division	0-2	1-2	2	5	L
07/03	Héroes de Zaci FC Mexico Segunda Division	0-1	1-2	10	2	L
03/03	Club Celaya Mexico Segunda Division	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
13/02	Racing de Veracruz Mexico Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
08/02	Tapachula Soconusco FC Mexico Segunda Division	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
31/01	Deportiva Venados Mexico Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
25/01	Neza FC Mexico Segunda Division	0-1	2-3	9	8	L

Jaguares de Chiapas FC

DLWWWLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/04	Club Celaya Mexico Segunda Division	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
29/03	Chapulineros de Oaxaca Mexico Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
21/03	Racing de Veracruz Mexico Segunda Division	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
15/03	Tapachula Soconusco FC Mexico Segunda Division	1-1	1-3	6	5	L
07/03	Deportiva Venados Mexico Segunda Division	1-2	1-4	4	9	L
01/03	Neza FC Mexico Segunda Division	2-1	6-1	–	–	W
21/02	Dragones Toluca Mexico Segunda Division	1-0	1-0	9	3	W
15/02	Club Canoneros Marina Mexico Segunda Division	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
07/02	Pioneros de Cancun Mexico Segunda Division	0-1	0-2	9	4	L
25/01	Montaneses FC Mexico Segunda Division	0-0	3-3	6	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chapulineros de Oaxaca vs Jaguares de Chiapas FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Jaguares de Chiapas FC win (39%). Probabilities: Chapulineros de Oaxaca 33%, draw 28%, Jaguares de Chiapas FC 39%.

How many goals are expected in Chapulineros de Oaxaca vs Jaguares de Chiapas FC?

The model expects 2.51 goals (Chapulineros de Oaxaca 1.19 · Jaguares de Chiapas FC 1.32), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chapulineros de Oaxaca vs Jaguares de Chiapas FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.