Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B · 17/10, 20:00

Prediction: Serrano vs Carapebus/Campos

Team pages: Serrano · Carapebus/Campos

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

Serrano1.74

Carapebus/Campos0.6

1X2

65% 23% 12%

Serrano Draw Carapebus/Campos

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Serrano 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDLDWDWW

Carapebus/Campos 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LWDLLLDLLL

Head-to-head

Serrano 1–1–1 Carapebus/Campos (3 last)

Carapebus/Campos0-0Serrano
Serrano2-0Carapebus/Campos
Serrano2-3Carapebus/Campos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Serrano 1532 · Carapebus/Campos 1420

	Serrano	Draw	Carapebus/Campos
Our model	64%	25%	11%
Market	66%	21%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Serrano (rating 1532 vs 1420).
Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Serrano	Carapebus/Campos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.8 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.4	2.2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	6.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.20

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.62
2	7.00 → 7.00	Pinn 9.35 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
13:56 +10’	1.36	4.20	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:27 +6’	1.31	4.22	7.91
18:20 +56’	1.27▼	4.62▲	9.35▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Serrano 1–1–1 Carapebus/Campos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/10/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Carapebus/Campos	0-0 HT 0-0	Serrano
17/11/21 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Serrano	2-0 HT 1-0	Carapebus/Campos
10/06/18 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Serrano	2-3 HT 1-2	Carapebus/Campos

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Niteroiense	6	5	1	0	10	2	16
2	Duque de Caxias FC	6	4	0	2	10	5	12
3	Serrano	6	3	2	1	7	6	11
4	Goytacaz	6	3	2	1	6	5	11
5	Petropolis	6	2	4	0	7	4	10
6	Artsul Futebol Clube	7	2	4	1	10	8	10
7	Campo Grande AC	6	2	2	2	6	8	8
8	Macae Esporte FC	6	2	1	3	7	7	7
9	Sao Cristovao RJ	6	1	3	2	4	5	6
10	Nova Cidade	7	1	3	3	7	9	6
11	Audax Rio	6	0	1	5	2	9	1
12	Carapebus/Campos	6	0	1	5	5	13	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Serrano	Carapebus/Campos
Macae Esporte FC	1-0 W	3-4 L
Artsul Futebol Clube	4-3 W	0-0 D
Campo Grande AC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Niteroiense	0-2 L	1-3 L
Bonsucesso FC	0-0 D	1-1 D
Sao Cristovao RJ	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Serrano (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Serrano

WWWDLDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Macae Esporte FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
03/10	Artsul Futebol Clube Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	2-0	4-3	3	9	W
26/09	Campo Grande AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Goytacaz Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
05/09	Niteroiense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
06/12	Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
30/11	Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	2-1	2-1	2	7	W
22/11	Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
15/11	Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	1-0	6	5	W

Carapebus/Campos

LWDLLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Niteroiense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-2	1-3	7	4	L
03/10	Macae Esporte FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-2	3-4	6	12	L
25/09	Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-1	5	9	L
19/09	Artsul Futebol Clube Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	0	6	D
11/09	Duque de Caxias FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-2	1-4	2	1	L
05/09	Campo Grande AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-1	7	9	L
08/11	Duque de Caxias FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
05/11	Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-1	1-1	3	9	D
01/11	Campo Grande AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
25/10	Artsul Futebol Clube Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-2	1-3	4	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Serrano vs Carapebus/Campos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Serrano win (65%). Probabilities: Serrano 65%, draw 23%, Carapebus/Campos 12%.

How many goals are expected in Serrano vs Carapebus/Campos?

The model expects 2.34 goals (Serrano 1.74 · Carapebus/Campos 0.6), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Serrano vs Carapebus/Campos?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.