Football · Mexico Segunda Division · 29/08, 02:30

Prediction: Tigres de Álica FC vs Zacatepec FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Tigres de Álica FC1.54

Zacatepec FC1.09

1X2

47% 27% 26%

Tigres de Álica FC Draw Zacatepec FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Tigres de Álica FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDLDDWWWLW

Zacatepec FC 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDWLDWDD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tigres de Álica FC 1545 · Zacatepec FC 1543

	Tigres de Álica FC	Draw	Zacatepec FC
Our model	46%	28%	26%
Market	47%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tigres de Álica FC	Zacatepec FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.9	1.3 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	4.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.40

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:19 +4’	1.90	3.40	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · Mexico Segunda Division · Liga Primera Premier 26/27, Group 1

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Irapuato	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cordobes Futbol Club	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	H2O Purepechas FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lobos ULM	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Los Cabos United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CF Reboceros La Piedad	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tigres de Álica FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tritones Vallarta MFC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Zacatepec FC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tigres de Álica FC

WDLDDWWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/04	Halcones de Zapopan Mexico Segunda Division	0-1	2-1	11	3	W
15/04	Halcones de Zapopan Mexico Segunda Division	0-0	0-2	7	2	L
12/04	Los Cabos United Mexico Segunda Division	2-0	2-0	1	3	W
29/03	U.A. Zacatecas Mexico Segunda Division	1-1	3-2	5	6	W
22/03	Tritones Vallarta MFC Mexico Segunda Division	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
13/03	Estudiantes Tecos Mexico Segunda Division	1-1	1-1	3	8	D
08/03	Guerreros de Autlán Mexico Segunda Division	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
28/02	Mineros de Fresnillo Mexico Segunda Division	0-2	1-2	11	5	L
22/02	Cimarrones de Sonora FC Mexico Segunda Division	1-0	1-1	8	4	D
15/02	Ensenada FC Mexico Segunda Division	1-1	2-1	–	–	W

Zacatepec FC

WDWDWLDWDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/04	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Segunda Division	1-0	1-1	2	7	D
22/04	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Segunda Division	0-2	2-2	–	–	D
19/04	FC Santiago Mexico Segunda Division	1-0	3-2	3	2	W
15/04	FC Santiago Mexico Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
12/04	Gavilanes FC Matamoros Mexico Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
28/03	Sporting Canamy Mexico Segunda Division	3-0	5-0	–	–	W
21/03	Ciervos FC Mexico Segunda Division	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
14/03	Correcaminos II Mexico Segunda Division	0-1	3-2	–	–	W
08/03	Club Calor Mexico Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
28/02	Zitacuaro CF Mexico Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tigres de Álica FC vs Zacatepec FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tigres de Álica FC win (47%). Probabilities: Tigres de Álica FC 47%, draw 27%, Zacatepec FC 26%.

How many goals are expected in Tigres de Álica FC vs Zacatepec FC?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Tigres de Álica FC 1.54 · Zacatepec FC 1.09), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tigres de Álica FC vs Zacatepec FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.