Football · Mexico Segunda Division · 28/08, 18:00

Prediction: Tritones Vallarta MFC vs CF Reboceros La Piedad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Tritones Vallarta MFC1.97

CF Reboceros La Piedad1.11

1X2

56% 24% 20%

Tritones Vallarta MFC Draw CF Reboceros La Piedad

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Tritones Vallarta MFC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWWLWDDL

CF Reboceros La Piedad 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWDLLLLW

Head-to-head

Tritones Vallarta MFC 2–0 CF Reboceros La Piedad (2 last)

CF Reboceros La Piedad0-2Tritones Vallarta MFC
Tritones Vallarta MFC2-0CF Reboceros La Piedad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tritones Vallarta MFC 1534 · CF Reboceros La Piedad 1441

	Tritones Vallarta MFC	Draw	CF Reboceros La Piedad
Our model	56%	24%	20%
Market	56%	24%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tritones Vallarta MFC (rating 1534 vs 1441).
H2H favours Tritones Vallarta MFC: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tritones Vallarta MFC	CF Reboceros La Piedad
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.6	2 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	1.1 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.9	2.4 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.3	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.70

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.60▲	Bet365 1.60
X	4.33 → 3.70▼	Bet365 3.70
2	6.50 → 4.50▼	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:10 +8’	1.36	4.33	6.50
12:37 +17’	1.60▲	3.70▼	4.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tritones Vallarta MFC 2–0–0 CF Reboceros La Piedad

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Mexico Segunda Division	CF Reboceros La Piedad	0-2 HT 0-2	Tritones Vallarta MFC
31/08/25 Mexico Segunda Division	Tritones Vallarta MFC	2-0 HT 1-0	CF Reboceros La Piedad

Standings · Mexico Segunda Division · Liga Primera Premier 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Irapuato	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cordobes Futbol Club	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	H2O Purepechas FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lobos ULM	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Los Cabos United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CF Reboceros La Piedad	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tigres de Álica FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tritones Vallarta MFC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Zacatepec FC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tritones Vallarta MFC	CF Reboceros La Piedad
Universidad Guadalajara II	0-1 L	1-3 L
Guerreros de Autlán	1-0 W	3-0 W
Los Cabos United	2-0 W	0-1 L
U.A. Zacatecas	1-1 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tritones Vallarta MFC

WDLWWLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/04	Deportiva Venados Mexico Segunda Division	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
23/04	Deportiva Venados Mexico Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
19/04	Tapachula Soconusco FC Mexico Segunda Division	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
16/04	Tapachula Soconusco FC Mexico Segunda Division	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
11/04	Universidad Guadalajara II Mexico Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
06/04	Guerreros de Autlán Mexico Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
28/03	Los Cabos United Mexico Segunda Division	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
22/03	Tigres de Álica FC Mexico Segunda Division	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
14/03	U.A. Zacatecas Mexico Segunda Division	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
07/03	Estudiantes Tecos Mexico Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	6	2	W

CF Reboceros La Piedad

LLWWDLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/04	Guerreros de Autlán Mexico Segunda Division	0-0	3-0	6	3	W
04/04	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Segunda Division	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
28/03	Mineros de Fresnillo Mexico Segunda Division	1-2	2-6	5	3	L
22/03	Cimarrones de Sonora FC Mexico Segunda Division	2-0	2-3	–	–	L
17/03	Ensenada FC Mexico Segunda Division	0-4	1-6	4	3	L
08/03	ACF Zapotlanejo Mexico Segunda Division	3-3	4-4	4	0	D
22/02	U.A. Zacatecas Mexico Segunda Division	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
15/02	Colima Mexico Segunda Division	1-1	3-2	5	5	W
07/02	Universidad Guadalajara II Mexico Segunda Division	1-1	1-3	9	1	L
04/02	Los Cabos United Mexico Segunda Division	0-1	0-1	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tritones Vallarta MFC vs CF Reboceros La Piedad?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tritones Vallarta MFC win (56%). Probabilities: Tritones Vallarta MFC 56%, draw 24%, CF Reboceros La Piedad 20%.

How many goals are expected in Tritones Vallarta MFC vs CF Reboceros La Piedad?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Tritones Vallarta MFC 1.97 · CF Reboceros La Piedad 1.11), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Tritones Vallarta MFC vs CF Reboceros La Piedad?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.