Football · Greece Gamma Ethniki · 01/11, 14:00
Prediction: Doxa Drama vs Aetos Orfanou
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.74Total
Doxa Drama2.54
Aetos Orfanou1.2
1X2
Doxa Drama
Draw
Aetos Orfanou
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Doxa Drama
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Aetos Orfanou
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Doxa Drama
2–1
Aetos Orfanou
(3 last)
- Doxa Drama3-2Aetos Orfanou
- Aetos Orfanou2-0Doxa Drama
- Doxa Drama2-1Aetos Orfanou
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Doxa Drama 1554 · Aetos Orfanou 1447
| Doxa Drama | Draw | Aetos Orfanou | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Market | 65% | 20% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.74 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Doxa Drama (rating 1554 vs 1447).
- H2H favours Doxa Drama: 2-0-1.
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Doxa Drama | Aetos Orfanou | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.3 | 1.6 / 2.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1.3 | 0.5 / 2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 25/25/50% | 25/0/75% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 5 / 8.6 | 1 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.4 | 3.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Doxa Drama 2–0–1 Aetos Orfanou
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 Greece Gamma Ethniki | Doxa Drama | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Aetos Orfanou |
| 14/12/25 Greece Gamma Ethniki | Aetos Orfanou | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Doxa Drama |
| 28/09/25 Greece Gamma Ethniki | Doxa Drama | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Aetos Orfanou |
Standings · Greece Gamma Ethniki · Gamma Ethniki 26/27, Group 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Doxa Drama | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Xanthi | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Kavala | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Aetos Orfanou | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| 5 | Orfeas Eleutheroupolis | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 6 | PAOP Neas Amisou | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 7 | Apollon Paralimniou | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 8 | MAS Ardas Kastaneon | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 3 |
| 9 | Doxa Neou Sidiroxoriou | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 2 |
| 10 | AE Thrakis | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Doxa Drama | Aetos Orfanou |
|---|---|---|
| Doxa Neou Sidiroxoriou | 3-2 W | 3-3 D |
| Posidonas Neas Michanionas | 3-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Iraklis Thermaikou | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Panthrakikos | 0-2 L | 1-5 L |
| Xanthi | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Doxa Drama (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Doxa Drama
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Doxa Neou Sidiroxoriou Greece Gamma Ethniki |
2-1 | 3-2 | 17 | 5 | W |
| 18/10 | Orfeas Eleutheroupolis Greece Gamma Ethniki |
– | 4-0 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 10/10 | Apollon Paralimniou Greece Gamma Ethniki |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 08/04 | Posidonas Neas Michanionas Greece Gamma Ethniki |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 05/04 | Iraklis Thermaikou Greece Gamma Ethniki |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 01/04 | Panthrakikos Greece Gamma Ethniki |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 28/03 | Xanthi Greece Gamma Ethniki |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/03 | Aetos Orfanou Greece Gamma Ethniki |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 01/03 | PAOK Dytikou Greece Gamma Ethniki |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/02 | Iraklis Thermaikou Greece Gamma Ethniki |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
Aetos Orfanou
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | MAS Ardas Kastaneon Greece Gamma Ethniki |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/10 | Doxa Neou Sidiroxoriou Greece Gamma Ethniki |
– | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 10/10 | Xanthi Greece Gamma Ethniki |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 08/04 | Panthrakikos Greece Gamma Ethniki |
0-1 | 1-5 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 05/04 | Posidonas Neas Michanionas Greece Gamma Ethniki |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 01/04 | Xanthi Greece Gamma Ethniki |
0-5 | 0-7 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 28/03 | Iraklis Thermaikou Greece Gamma Ethniki |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 22/03 | Doxa Drama Greece Gamma Ethniki |
2-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 01/03 | Posidonas Neas Michanionas Greece Gamma Ethniki |
0-1 | 2-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 21/02 | MGS Orestes Orestiadas Greece Gamma Ethniki |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Doxa Drama vs Aetos Orfanou?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Doxa Drama win (65%). Probabilities: Doxa Drama 65%, draw 19%, Aetos Orfanou 15%.
How many goals are expected in Doxa Drama vs Aetos Orfanou?
The model expects 3.74 goals (Doxa Drama 2.54 · Aetos Orfanou 1.2), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Doxa Drama vs Aetos Orfanou?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.