Football · Slovenia Prva Liga · 29/08, 20:15

Prediction: NK Bravo vs NS Mura

Team pages: NK Bravo · NS Mura

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

NK Bravo1.59

NS Mura1.3

1X2

43% 27% 30%

NK Bravo Draw NS Mura

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Bravo 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWDDL

NS Mura 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLDWLLWL

Head-to-head

NK Bravo 2–3–1 NS Mura (6 last)

NS Mura1-2NK Bravo
NK Bravo0-2NS Mura
NS Mura1-1NK Bravo
NK Bravo2-0NS Mura
NK Bravo1-1NS Mura
NS Mura1-1NK Bravo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Bravo 1519 · NS Mura 1462

	NK Bravo	Draw	NS Mura
Our model	43%	27%	30%
Market	43%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Bravo (rating 1519 vs 1462).
H2H favours NK Bravo: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Bravo	NS Mura
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.6	1.9 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.2	5.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.25

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.10▲	Pinn 2.20
X	3.30 → 3.25▼	Pinn 3.43 ★
2	3.25 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.13

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:02 +18’	2.00	3.30	3.25
01:16 +2’	2.10▲	3.25▼	3.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:16 +2’	2.15	3.45	3.20
22:53 +2’	2.17▲	3.44▼	3.17▼
22:24 +4’	2.20▲	3.43▼	3.13▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Bravo 2–3–1 NS Mura

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	NS Mura	1-2 HT 0-2	NK Bravo
03/02/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Bravo	0-2 HT 0-0	NS Mura
04/10/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NS Mura	1-1 HT 0-0	NK Bravo
26/07/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Bravo	2-0 HT 1-0	NS Mura
28/04/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Bravo	1-1 HT 0-1	NS Mura
02/03/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NS Mura	1-1 HT 1-1	NK Bravo

Standings · Slovenia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Maribor	6	3	3	0	10	3	12
2	FC Koper	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
3	Aluminij Kidricevo	5	2	2	1	8	5	8
4	NK Celje	4	2	2	0	7	4	8
5	NK Bravo	6	2	2	2	6	8	8
6	NK Nafta 1903	6	2	1	3	10	9	7
7	Olimpija Ljubljana	6	2	1	3	3	5	7
8	NS Mura	6	2	1	3	8	12	7
9	NK Brinje Grosuplje	6	1	2	3	7	11	5
10	NK Radomlje	5	1	1	3	7	10	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Bravo	NS Mura
NK Maribor	1-3 L	2-1 W
FC Koper	0-0 D	0-1 L
NK Brinje Grosuplje	1-1 D	2-1 W
NK Radomlje	2-1 W	1-3 L
NK Nafta 1903	0-3 L	2-5 L
Olimpija Ljubljana	2-0 W	1-0 W
NK Celje	3-2 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: NK Bravo (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Bravo

WWWWWLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-3	1	4	L
16/08	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
09/08	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
02/08	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
26/07	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-3	10	5	L
18/07	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
23/05	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
09/05	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	8	9	W
02/05	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	3-0	3-2	6	6	W
26/04	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	2-0	3-0	2	4	W

NS Mura

LWWLDWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
16/08	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
10/08	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
01/08	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	1-2	2-5	5	3	L
25/07	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	0	7	W
17/07	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-2	1	5	D
22/05	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
17/05	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	2	10	W
10/05	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
03/05	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Bravo vs NS Mura?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Bravo win (43%). Probabilities: NK Bravo 43%, draw 27%, NS Mura 30%.

How many goals are expected in NK Bravo vs NS Mura?

The model expects 2.89 goals (NK Bravo 1.59 · NS Mura 1.3), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Bravo vs NS Mura?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.