Football · Slovenia Prva Liga · 06/09, 20:15

Prediction: NK Celje vs FC Koper

Team pages: NK Celje · FC Koper

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

NK Celje1.45

FC Koper1.17

1X2

43% 27% 30%

NK Celje Draw FC Koper

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Celje 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLWDDWWL

FC Koper 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDDLDWW

Head-to-head

NK Celje 2–2–2 FC Koper (6 last)

NK Celje1-2FC Koper
FC Koper0-1NK Celje
NK Celje1-1FC Koper
FC Koper3-3NK Celje
FC Koper0-4NK Celje
NK Celje2-3FC Koper

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Celje 1532 · FC Koper 1561

	NK Celje	Draw	FC Koper
Our model	42%	28%	29%
Market	44%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Celje	FC Koper
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.3	1.1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.9	2.8 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.50

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:23 +17’	2.05	3.50	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Celje 2–2–2 FC Koper

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Celje	1-2 HT 0-1	FC Koper
15/03/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	FC Koper	0-1 HT 0-1	NK Celje
30/11/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Celje	1-1 HT 1-1	FC Koper
14/09/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	FC Koper	3-3 HT 1-0	NK Celje
14/05/25 Slovenia Cup	FC Koper	0-4 HT 0-3	NK Celje
10/05/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Celje	2-3 HT 2-1	FC Koper

Standings · Slovenia Prva Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Maribor	7	4	3	0	13	5	15
2	FC Koper	7	3	3	1	7	5	12
3	NK Bravo	7	3	2	2	8	8	11
4	NK Brinje Grosuplje	7	2	2	3	11	12	8
5	Aluminij Kidricevo	6	2	2	2	8	6	8
6	Olimpija Ljubljana	7	2	2	3	3	5	8
7	NK Celje	5	2	2	1	8	8	8
8	NK Nafta 1903	7	2	1	4	12	12	7
9	NS Mura	7	2	1	4	8	14	7
10	NK Radomlje	6	1	2	3	7	10	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Celje	FC Koper
NK Brinje Grosuplje	1-4 L	1-1 D
NK Nafta 1903	3-1 W	2-0 W
NK Maribor	1-1 D	0-2 L
NS Mura	2-2 D	1-0 W
NK Bravo	2-3 L	0-0 D
Aluminij Kidricevo	5-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Koper (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Celje

WWLLWDDWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-1	1-4	6	3	L
15/08	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	2-1	3-1	9	3	W
08/08	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
01/08	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
17/07	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
22/05	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia Prva Liga	4-0	4-0	6	4	W
16/05	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
02/05	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-3	2-3	5	6	L
26/04	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	3-0	5-0	3	1	W
19/04	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	2-0	2-0	6	1	W

FC Koper

WWWWDDLDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
22/08	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
16/08	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
09/08	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
02/08	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	10	9	D
26/07	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-2	2-2	5	5	D
17/07	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
16/05	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	8	5	W
09/05	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
03/05	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Celje vs FC Koper?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Celje win (43%). Probabilities: NK Celje 43%, draw 27%, FC Koper 30%.

How many goals are expected in NK Celje vs FC Koper?

The model expects 2.62 goals (NK Celje 1.45 · FC Koper 1.17), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Celje vs FC Koper?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.