Football · Slovenia Prva Liga · 06/09, 17:30

Prediction: NK Maribor vs NS Mura

Team pages: NK Maribor · NS Mura

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

NK Maribor1.84

NS Mura0.94

1X2

58% 24% 18%

NK Maribor Draw NS Mura

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Maribor 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LLWDWDWDWW

NS Mura 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLDWLLWLL

Head-to-head

NK Maribor 5–1 NS Mura (6 last)

NS Mura2-1NK Maribor
NK Maribor3-0NS Mura
NS Mura0-1NK Maribor
NK Maribor1-0NS Mura
NS Mura1-2NK Maribor
NK Maribor2-0NS Mura

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Maribor 1566 · NS Mura 1415

	NK Maribor	Draw	NS Mura
Our model	57%	25%	18%
Market	58%	23%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Maribor (rating 1566 vs 1415).
H2H favours NK Maribor: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Maribor	NS Mura
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.9	1.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.3	1.9 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	5.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.53

X3.90

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 08:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.53▲	Pinn 1.60
X	4.33 → 3.90▼	Bet365 3.90
2	7.00 → 4.75▼	Pinn 5.29 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:30 +3’	1.36	4.33	7.00
00:38 +6’	1.45▲	4.33	5.25▼
08:32 +6’	1.53▲	3.90▼	4.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:26 +2’	1.46	4.38	5.81
11:38	1.47▲	4.29▼	6.26▲
13:34	1.55▲	3.97▼	5.60▼
15:54 +1’	1.54▼	3.97	5.79▲
19:32 +2’	1.56▲	3.90▼	5.58▼
03:40 +1’	1.55▼	3.96▲	5.60▲
10:40 +1’	1.56▲	3.94▼	5.52▼
16:29 +1’	1.56▼	3.94	5.54▲
09:46	1.60▲	3.85▼	5.29▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Maribor 5–0–1 NS Mura

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	NS Mura	2-1 HT 1-0	NK Maribor
14/03/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Maribor	3-0 HT 3-0	NS Mura
29/11/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NS Mura	0-1 HT 0-1	NK Maribor
13/09/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Maribor	1-0 HT 1-0	NS Mura
21/04/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NS Mura	1-2 HT 0-0	NK Maribor
22/02/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Maribor	2-0 HT 2-0	NS Mura

Standings · Slovenia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Maribor	7	4	3	0	13	5	15
2	FC Koper	7	3	3	1	7	5	12
3	NK Bravo	7	3	2	2	8	8	11
4	NK Brinje Grosuplje	7	2	2	3	11	12	8
5	Aluminij Kidricevo	6	2	2	2	8	6	8
6	Olimpija Ljubljana	7	2	2	3	3	5	8
7	NK Celje	5	2	2	1	8	8	8
8	NK Nafta 1903	7	2	1	4	12	12	7
9	NS Mura	7	2	1	4	8	14	7
10	NK Radomlje	6	1	2	3	7	10	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Maribor	NS Mura
NK Nafta 1903	3-2 W	2-5 L
NK Bravo	3-1 W	0-2 L
Olimpija Ljubljana	1-1 D	1-0 W
FC Koper	2-0 W	0-1 L
NK Celje	1-1 D	2-2 D
NK Brinje Grosuplje	3-0 W	2-1 W
NK Radomlje	1-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: NK Maribor (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Maribor

LLWDWDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	2-1	3-2	8	5	W
23/08	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	3-1	10	4	W
15/08	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
09/08	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
01/08	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
25/07	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
19/07	NK Aluminij Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
23/05	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
17/05	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	3	10	L
03/05	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-1	1-2	11	9	L

NS Mura

WWLDWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
22/08	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
16/08	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
10/08	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
01/08	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	1-2	2-5	5	3	L
25/07	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	0	7	W
17/07	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-2	1	5	D
22/05	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
17/05	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	2	10	W
10/05	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Maribor vs NS Mura?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Maribor win (58%). Probabilities: NK Maribor 58%, draw 24%, NS Mura 18%.

How many goals are expected in NK Maribor vs NS Mura?

The model expects 2.77 goals (NK Maribor 1.84 · NS Mura 0.94), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Maribor vs NS Mura?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.