Football · Indonesia Championship · 19/09, 14:00
Prediction: Persiba Balikpapan vs Persela Lamongan
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.32Total
Persiba Balikpapan1.17
Persela Lamongan1.14
1X2
Persiba Balikpapan
Draw
Persela Lamongan
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Persiba Balikpapan
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Persela Lamongan
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Persiba Balikpapan
1–2–3
Persela Lamongan
(6 last)
- Persela Lamongan2-0Persiba Balikpapan
- Persela Lamongan1-0Persiba Balikpapan
- Persiba Balikpapan0-3Persela Lamongan
- Persela Lamongan2-2Persiba Balikpapan
- Persiba Balikpapan2-2Persela Lamongan
- Persiba Balikpapan1-0Persela Lamongan
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Persiba Balikpapan 1438 · Persela Lamongan 1535
| Persiba Balikpapan | Draw | Persela Lamongan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 31% | 34% |
| Market | 36% | 30% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Persela Lamongan (rating 1438 vs 1535).
- H2H favours Persela Lamongan: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Persiba Balikpapan | Persela Lamongan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.7 | 1.5 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 3.7 | 2 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.4 | 4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Persiba Balikpapan 1–2–3 Persela Lamongan
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Indonesia Championship | Persela Lamongan | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Persiba Balikpapan |
| 04/01/26 Indonesia Championship | Persela Lamongan | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Persiba Balikpapan |
| 12/10/25 Indonesia Championship | Persiba Balikpapan | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Persela Lamongan |
| 05/11/17 Indonesia Super League | Persela Lamongan | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Persiba Balikpapan |
| 23/07/17 Indonesia Super League | Persiba Balikpapan | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Persela Lamongan |
| 06/02/17 Indonesia Cup | Persiba Balikpapan | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Persela Lamongan |
Standings · Indonesia Championship · Championship 26/27, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deltras Sidoarjo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | PS Barito Putera | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | RANS Nusantara | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Persela Lamongan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 5 | Kendal Tornado | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 | Dejan FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 7 | Persis Solo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 8 | Persipura Jayapura | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 |
| 9 | Persiba Balikpapan | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 |
| 10 | PSBS Biak | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Persiba Balikpapan | Persela Lamongan |
|---|---|---|
| Deltras Sidoarjo | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| PSS Sleman | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| PS Barito Putera | 3-3 D | 1-1 D |
| Kendal Tornado | 0-3 L | 0-5 L |
| Persipura Jayapura | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| PSIS Semarang | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Persipal Palu | 1-1 D | 7-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 4 D 3 L | 2 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Persela Lamongan (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Persiba Balikpapan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | RANS Nusantara Indonesia Championship |
2-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | Persekat Kabupaten Tegal Indonesia Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Deltras Sidoarjo Indonesia Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 26/04 | PSS Sleman Indonesia Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | PS Barito Putera Indonesia Championship |
1-2 | 3-3 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 12/04 | Kendal Tornado Indonesia Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 04/04 | Persipura Jayapura Indonesia Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 28/03 | Persela Lamongan Indonesia Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 01/03 | PSIS Semarang Indonesia Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 23/02 | Persipal Palu Indonesia Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | D |
Persela Lamongan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Persis Solo Indonesia Championship |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Kendal Tornado Indonesia Championship |
0-1 | 0-5 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 25/04 | PS Barito Putera Indonesia Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 18/04 | Persipal Palu Indonesia Championship |
3-1 | 7-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 11/04 | Persipura Jayapura Indonesia Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 05/04 | Deltras Sidoarjo Indonesia Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 28/03 | Persiba Balikpapan Indonesia Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 01/03 | PSS Sleman Indonesia Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 21/02 | Persiku Kudus Indonesia Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 15/02 | PSIS Semarang Indonesia Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Persiba Balikpapan vs Persela Lamongan?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Persiba Balikpapan win (36%). Probabilities: Persiba Balikpapan 36%, draw 30%, Persela Lamongan 34%.
How many goals are expected in Persiba Balikpapan vs Persela Lamongan?
The model expects 2.32 goals (Persiba Balikpapan 1.17 · Persela Lamongan 1.14), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Persiba Balikpapan vs Persela Lamongan?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.