Football · Indonesia Championship · 27/09, 14:00

Prediction: Bekasi City vs PSMS Medan

Team pages: Bekasi City · PSMS Medan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Bekasi City1.23

PSMS Medan1.53

1X2

30% 26% 44%

Bekasi City Draw PSMS Medan

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Bekasi City 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDDWLWDL

PSMS Medan 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LLDDLWDDDW

Head-to-head

Bekasi City 2–1–2 PSMS Medan (5 last)

Bekasi City2-1PSMS Medan
PSMS Medan2-1Bekasi City
Bekasi City1-0PSMS Medan
Bekasi City0-2PSMS Medan
PSMS Medan0-0Bekasi City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bekasi City 1503 · PSMS Medan 1477

	Bekasi City	Draw	PSMS Medan
Our model	29%	28%	43%
Market	31%	24%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bekasi City	PSMS Medan
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.8	2.4 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.3	4 / 0.9

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.70

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
06:12 +8’	2.90	3.70	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Bekasi City 2–1–2 PSMS Medan

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Indonesia Championship	Bekasi City	2-1 HT 0-0	PSMS Medan
30/01/26 Indonesia Championship	PSMS Medan	2-1 HT 1-1	Bekasi City
09/11/25 Indonesia Championship	Bekasi City	1-0 HT 0-0	PSMS Medan
07/12/24 Indonesia Championship	Bekasi City	0-2 HT 0-1	PSMS Medan
02/10/24 Indonesia Championship	PSMS Medan	0-0 HT 0-0	Bekasi City

Standings · Indonesia Championship · Championship 26/27, Group A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Persikad 1999 FC	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
2	PSMS Medan	2	1	1	0	8	2	4
3	PSIS Semarang	2	1	1	0	3	2	3
4	Semen Padang	2	1	1	0	2	1	3
5	PSGC Ciamis	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
6	PSPS Pekanbaru	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
7	Bekasi City	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
8	Sumsel United	2	0	1	1	2	4	0
9	Persiraja Aceh	2	0	0	2	1	3	-1
10	Persiku Kudus	2	0	1	1	1	7	-1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bekasi City	PSMS Medan
Persikad 1999 FC	1-2 L	2-2 D
Persiku Kudus	1-1 D	6-0 W
PSPS Pekanbaru	3-2 W	1-1 D
Isenmulang Kalteng FC	3-1 W	1-1 D
Sumsel United	1-1 D	2-2 D
Persekat Kabupaten Tegal	1-1 D	0-2 L
Garudayaksa	0-4 L	0-1 L
Persiraja Aceh	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 5 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Bekasi City (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bekasi City

WWLDDWLWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Persikad 1999 FC Indonesia Championship	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
12/09	Persiku Kudus Indonesia Championship	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
02/05	PSPS Pekanbaru Indonesia Championship	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
25/04	Persikad 1999 FC Indonesia Championship	1-3	2-3	2	6	L
18/04	Isenmulang Kalteng FC Indonesia Championship	2-0	3-1	1	6	W
12/04	Sumsel United Indonesia Championship	1-0	1-1	2	8	D
06/04	Persekat Kabupaten Tegal Indonesia Championship	1-0	1-1	8	6	D
29/03	Garudayaksa Indonesia Championship	0-1	0-4	5	4	L
28/02	PSMS Medan Indonesia Championship	0-0	2-1	4	8	W
22/02	Persiraja Aceh Indonesia Championship	0-0	1-0	2	3	W

PSMS Medan

LLDDLWDDDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Persiku Kudus Indonesia Championship	5-0	6-0	0	0	W
13/09	Sumsel United Indonesia Championship	2-0	2-2	3	5	D
02/05	Persiraja Aceh Indonesia Championship	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
25/04	Isenmulang Kalteng FC Indonesia Championship	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/04	Sriwijaya Indonesia Championship	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
11/04	Garudayaksa Indonesia Championship	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
05/04	Persikad 1999 FC Indonesia Championship	0-1	2-2	9	8	D
28/03	PSPS Pekanbaru Indonesia Championship	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
28/02	Bekasi City Indonesia Championship	0-0	1-2	4	8	L
21/02	Persekat Kabupaten Tegal Indonesia Championship	0-1	0-2	1	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bekasi City vs PSMS Medan?

According to our model, the most likely result is an PSMS Medan win (44%). Probabilities: Bekasi City 30%, draw 26%, PSMS Medan 44%.

How many goals are expected in Bekasi City vs PSMS Medan?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Bekasi City 1.23 · PSMS Medan 1.53), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Bekasi City vs PSMS Medan?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.