Football · Indonesia Championship · 07/11, 13:00
Prediction: PSMS Medan vs Persiraja Aceh
Team pages: PSMS Medan · Persiraja Aceh
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.94Total
PSMS Medan1.98
Persiraja Aceh0.96
1X2
PSMS Medan
Draw
Persiraja Aceh
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
PSMS Medan
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Persiraja Aceh
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
PSMS Medan
2–1–3
Persiraja Aceh
(6 last)
- Persiraja Aceh1-1PSMS Medan
- Persiraja Aceh1-2PSMS Medan
- PSMS Medan1-0Persiraja Aceh
- PSMS Medan1-2Persiraja Aceh
- Persiraja Aceh2-1PSMS Medan
- Persiraja Aceh2-0PSMS Medan
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · PSMS Medan 1555 · Persiraja Aceh 1486
| PSMS Medan | Draw | Persiraja Aceh | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Market | 61% | 22% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PSMS Medan (rating 1555 vs 1486).
- H2H favours Persiraja Aceh: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| PSMS Medan | Persiraja Aceh | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1 | 1.3 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 2.9 | 1.8 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.6 | 4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · PSMS Medan 2–1–3 Persiraja Aceh
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Indonesia Championship | Persiraja Aceh | 1-1 HT 0-1 | PSMS Medan |
| 18/01/26 Indonesia Championship | Persiraja Aceh | 1-2 HT 1-1 | PSMS Medan |
| 25/10/25 Indonesia Championship | PSMS Medan | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Persiraja Aceh |
| 14/12/24 Indonesia Championship | PSMS Medan | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Persiraja Aceh |
| 26/10/24 Indonesia Championship | Persiraja Aceh | 2-1 HT 2-1 | PSMS Medan |
| 27/01/24 Indonesia Championship | Persiraja Aceh | 2-0 HT 0-0 | PSMS Medan |
Standings · Indonesia Championship · Championship 26/27, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSPS Pekanbaru | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | PSMS Medan | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 7 | 17 |
| 3 | Semen Padang | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Persikad 1999 FC | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 13 | 12 |
| 5 | Sumsel United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 10 |
| 6 | PSIS Semarang | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| 7 | Persiraja Aceh | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| 8 | Bekasi City | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | PSGC Ciamis | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 7 |
| 10 | Persiku Kudus | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 26 | -1 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | PSMS Medan | Persiraja Aceh |
|---|---|---|
| PSGC Ciamis | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| PSIS Semarang | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Semen Padang | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| PSPS Pekanbaru | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Persikad 1999 FC | 4-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Bekasi City | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Persiku Kudus | 6-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Sumsel United | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: PSMS Medan (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
PSMS Medan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | PSGC Ciamis Indonesia Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 25/10 | PSIS Semarang Indonesia Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 17/10 | Semen Padang Indonesia Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 11/10 | PSPS Pekanbaru Indonesia Championship |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/10 | PSPS Pekanbaru Indonesia Championship |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 03/10 | Persikad 1999 FC Indonesia Championship |
0-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 27/09 | Bekasi City Indonesia Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | Persiku Kudus Indonesia Championship |
5-0 | 6-0 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 13/09 | Sumsel United Indonesia Championship |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Persiraja Aceh Indonesia Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Persiraja Aceh
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Persiku Kudus Indonesia Championship |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 24/10 | PSGC Ciamis Indonesia Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 17/10 | Bekasi City Indonesia Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 09/10 | PSIS Semarang Indonesia Championship |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 02/10 | Sumsel United Indonesia Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 26/09 | Persikad 1999 FC Indonesia Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 19/09 | PSPS Pekanbaru Indonesia Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Semen Padang Indonesia Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | PSMS Medan Indonesia Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 26/04 | Persekat Kabupaten Tegal Indonesia Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in PSMS Medan vs Persiraja Aceh?
According to our model, the most likely result is a PSMS Medan win (60%). Probabilities: PSMS Medan 60%, draw 23%, Persiraja Aceh 17%.
How many goals are expected in PSMS Medan vs Persiraja Aceh?
The model expects 2.94 goals (PSMS Medan 1.98 · Persiraja Aceh 0.96), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in PSMS Medan vs Persiraja Aceh?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.