Football · Australia Western Australia State League 1 · 22/08, 09:00

Prediction: Mandurah City vs Murdoch University Melville FC

Team pages: Mandurah City · Murdoch University Melville FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.89Total

Mandurah City2.29

Murdoch University Melville FC1.6

1X2

52% 22% 26%

Mandurah City Draw Murdoch University Melville FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Mandurah City 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWDLLL

Murdoch University Melville FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDDLWLLW

Head-to-head

Mandurah City 3–1–2 Murdoch University Melville FC (6 last)

Murdoch University Melville FC1-2Mandurah City
Murdoch University Melville FC2-1Mandurah City
Mandurah City2-2Murdoch University Melville FC
Murdoch University Melville FC2-6Mandurah City
Mandurah City2-1Murdoch University Melville FC
Mandurah City0-1Murdoch University Melville FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mandurah City 1521 · Murdoch University Melville FC 1453

	Mandurah City	Draw	Murdoch University Melville FC
Our model	52%	21%	26%
Market	52%	22%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.89 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mandurah City (rating 1521 vs 1453).
H2H favours Mandurah City: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mandurah City	Murdoch University Melville FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.9	1.8 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 4.7	3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	2.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.00

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
10:29 +2’	1.73	4.00	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mandurah City 3–1–2 Murdoch University Melville FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Australia Western Australia State League 1	Murdoch University Melville FC	1-2 HT 0-0	Mandurah City
28/06/25 Australia Western Australia State League 1	Murdoch University Melville FC	2-1 HT 0-1	Mandurah City
19/04/25 Australia Western Australia State League 1	Mandurah City	2-2 HT 0-0	Murdoch University Melville FC
06/07/24 Australia Western Australia State League 1	Murdoch University Melville FC	2-6 HT 2-2	Mandurah City
24/06/23 Australia Western Australia State League 1	Mandurah City	2-1 HT 1-1	Murdoch University Melville FC
16/07/22 Australia Western Australia State League 1	Mandurah City	0-1 HT 0-1	Murdoch University Melville FC

Standings · Australia Western Australia State League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Floreat Athena	21	16	3	2	53	20	51
2	UWA-Nedlands FC	21	14	2	5	47	25	44
3	Joondalup City	21	11	3	7	36	31	36
4	Mandurah City	21	10	3	8	44	38	33
5	Quinns FC	21	10	3	8	31	36	33
6	Inglewood United	21	8	6	7	22	24	30
7	Kingsley Westside	21	9	2	10	34	33	29
8	Gwelup Croatia SC	21	6	6	9	32	43	24
9	Cockburn City	21	6	5	10	34	47	23
10	Murdoch University Melville FC	21	5	7	9	37	43	22
11	Subiaco AFC	21	5	2	14	34	46	17
12	Curtin University SC	21	3	4	14	19	37	13

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mandurah City	Murdoch University Melville FC
Floreat Athena	1-2 L	2-2 D
Quinns FC	0-1 L	1-3 L
UWA-Nedlands FC	0-3 L	0-3 L
Inglewood United	1-1 D	1-1 D
Curtin University SC	4-3 W	1-2 L
Joondalup City	2-1 W	2-3 L
Gwelup Croatia SC	2-2 D	5-3 W
Kingsley Westside	3-1 W	3-1 W
Cockburn City	2-2 D	2-3 L
Subiaco AFC	5-3 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Mandurah City (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mandurah City

WDWDWWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Floreat Athena Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-0	1-2	2	3	L
08/08	Quinns FC Australia Western Australia State League 1	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
01/08	UWA-Nedlands FC Australia Western Australia State League 1	0-1	0-3	8	4	L
25/07	Inglewood United Australia Western Australia State League 1	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
18/07	Curtin University SC Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-0	4-3	–	–	W
11/07	Joondalup City Australia Western Australia State League 1	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
04/07	Gwelup Croatia SC Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
27/06	Kingsley Westside Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
20/06	Cockburn City Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
13/06	Subiaco AFC Australia Western Australia State League 1	3-1	5-3	4	6	W

Murdoch University Melville FC

LDLDDLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Kingsley Westside Australia Western Australia State League 1	2-1	3-1	–	–	W
08/08	UWA-Nedlands FC Australia Western Australia State League 1	0-2	0-3	3	3	L
01/08	Curtin University SC Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-2	1-2	8	1	L
25/07	Gwelup Croatia SC Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-1	5-3	–	–	W
18/07	Joondalup City Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
11/07	Subiaco AFC Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-0	1-1	6	0	D
04/07	Floreat Athena Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
27/06	Quinns FC Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-0	1-3	–	–	L
20/06	Inglewood United Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
13/06	Cockburn City Australia Western Australia State League 1	0-1	2-3	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mandurah City vs Murdoch University Melville FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mandurah City win (52%). Probabilities: Mandurah City 52%, draw 22%, Murdoch University Melville FC 26%.

How many goals are expected in Mandurah City vs Murdoch University Melville FC?

The model expects 3.89 goals (Mandurah City 2.29 · Murdoch University Melville FC 1.6), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Mandurah City vs Murdoch University Melville FC?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.