Football · Australia Western Australia State League 1 · 22/08, 09:00

Prediction: Gwelup Croatia SC vs Floreat Athena

Team pages: Gwelup Croatia SC · Floreat Athena

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.56Total

Gwelup Croatia SC1.18

Floreat Athena2.38

1X2

17% 19% 64%

Gwelup Croatia SC Draw Floreat Athena

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Gwelup Croatia SC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Floreat Athena 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Gwelup Croatia SC 0–6 Floreat Athena (6 last)

Floreat Athena4-0Gwelup Croatia SC
Floreat Athena4-0Gwelup Croatia SC
Gwelup Croatia SC1-4Floreat Athena
Floreat Athena4-2Gwelup Croatia SC
Floreat Athena1-0Gwelup Croatia SC
Floreat Athena2-1Gwelup Croatia SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gwelup Croatia SC 1461 · Floreat Athena 1588

	Gwelup Croatia SC	Draw	Floreat Athena
Our model	17%	20%	63%
Market	18%	18%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Floreat Athena (rating 1461 vs 1588).
H2H favours Floreat Athena: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gwelup Croatia SC	Floreat Athena
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.9	2.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	1.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.7	2.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	2.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

15.00

X5.00

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.98

2 (-1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
10:27 +4’	5.00	5.00	1.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gwelup Croatia SC 0–0–6 Floreat Athena

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/06/26 Australia Western Australia State League 1	Floreat Athena	4-0 HT 0-0	Gwelup Croatia SC
28/02/26 Australia Friendlies	Floreat Athena	4-0 HT 1-0	Gwelup Croatia SC
16/07/22 Australia Western Australia Premier League	Gwelup Croatia SC	1-4 HT 1-1	Floreat Athena
30/04/22 Australia Western Australia Premier League	Floreat Athena	4-2 HT 2-0	Gwelup Croatia SC
04/02/22 Australia Friendlies	Floreat Athena	1-0 HT 0-0	Gwelup Croatia SC
07/08/21 Australia Western Australia Premier League	Floreat Athena	2-1 HT 1-0	Gwelup Croatia SC

Standings · Australia Western Australia State League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Floreat Athena	21	16	3	2	53	20	51
2	UWA-Nedlands FC	21	14	2	5	47	25	44
3	Joondalup City	21	11	3	7	36	31	36
4	Mandurah City	21	10	3	8	44	38	33
5	Quinns FC	21	10	3	8	31	36	33
6	Inglewood United	21	8	6	7	22	24	30
7	Kingsley Westside	21	9	2	10	34	33	29
8	Gwelup Croatia SC	21	6	6	9	32	43	24
9	Cockburn City	21	6	5	10	34	47	23
10	Murdoch University Melville FC	21	5	7	9	37	43	22
11	Subiaco AFC	21	5	2	14	34	46	17
12	Curtin University SC	21	3	4	14	19	37	13

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gwelup Croatia SC	Floreat Athena
Kingsley Westside	2-4 L	2-0 W
Quinns FC	0-2 L	2-1 W
Subiaco AFC	2-1 W	2-1 W
Murdoch University Melville FC	3-5 L	2-2 D
Cockburn City	2-0 W	7-1 W
Inglewood United	2-1 W	2-0 W
Mandurah City	2-2 D	2-1 W
Curtin University SC	0-0 D	4-0 W
UWA-Nedlands FC	0-2 L	2-3 L
Joondalup City	1-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 5 L	7 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Floreat Athena (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gwelup Croatia SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/08	Kingsley Westside Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-1	2-4	8	4	L
15/08	Quinns FC Australia Western Australia State League 1	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
01/08	Subiaco AFC Australia Western Australia State League 1	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
25/07	Murdoch University Melville FC Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-1	3-5	–	–	L
18/07	Cockburn City Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
11/07	Inglewood United Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
04/07	Mandurah City Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
27/06	Curtin University SC Australia Western Australia State League 1	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
20/06	UWA-Nedlands FC Australia Western Australia State League 1	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
13/06	Joondalup City Australia Western Australia State League 1	0-1	1-2	–	–	L

Floreat Athena

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Mandurah City Australia Western Australia State League 1	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
08/08	Cockburn City Australia Western Australia State League 1	5-0	7-1	6	0	W
01/08	Kingsley Westside Australia Western Australia State League 1	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
25/07	Subiaco AFC Australia Western Australia State League 1	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
18/07	Quinns FC Australia Western Australia State League 1	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
11/07	Curtin University SC Australia Western Australia State League 1	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
04/07	Murdoch University Melville FC Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
27/06	Inglewood United Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
20/06	Joondalup City Australia Western Australia State League 1	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
13/06	UWA-Nedlands FC Australia Western Australia State League 1	2-0	2-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gwelup Croatia SC vs Floreat Athena?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Floreat Athena win (64%). Probabilities: Gwelup Croatia SC 17%, draw 19%, Floreat Athena 64%.

How many goals are expected in Gwelup Croatia SC vs Floreat Athena?

The model expects 3.56 goals (Gwelup Croatia SC 1.18 · Floreat Athena 2.38), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Gwelup Croatia SC vs Floreat Athena?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.