Football · Australia NPL Queensland · 29/08, 09:00

Prediction: Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast Knights

Team pages: Moreton City Excelsior · Gold Coast Knights

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

Moreton City Excelsior2.03

Gold Coast Knights1.44

1X2

51% 23% 27%

Moreton City Excelsior Draw Gold Coast Knights

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Moreton City Excelsior 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Gold Coast Knights 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Moreton City Excelsior 3–3 Gold Coast Knights (6 last)

Gold Coast Knights2-1Moreton City Excelsior
Moreton City Excelsior4-1Gold Coast Knights
Moreton City Excelsior4-0Gold Coast Knights
Gold Coast Knights1-0Moreton City Excelsior
Gold Coast Knights2-5Moreton City Excelsior
Moreton City Excelsior2-3Gold Coast Knights

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Moreton City Excelsior 1522 · Gold Coast Knights 1494

	Moreton City Excelsior	Draw	Gold Coast Knights
Our model	50%	23%	26%
Market	51%	22%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Moreton City Excelsior	Gold Coast Knights
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.9	2.4 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X4.00

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 03:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.75▼	Bet365 1.75
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.25 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
07:40 +33’	1.80	4.00	3.25
02:53 +6’	1.61▼	4.20▲	3.80▲
03:48 +8’	1.75▲	4.00▼	3.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Moreton City Excelsior 3–0–3 Gold Coast Knights

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast Knights	2-1 HT 1-1	Moreton City Excelsior
20/02/26 Australia NPL Queensland	Moreton City Excelsior	4-1 HT 2-0	Gold Coast Knights
15/08/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Moreton City Excelsior	4-0 HT 2-0	Gold Coast Knights
02/05/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast Knights	1-0 HT 0-0	Moreton City Excelsior
02/08/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast Knights	2-5 HT 2-1	Moreton City Excelsior
27/04/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Moreton City Excelsior	2-3 HT 1-1	Gold Coast Knights

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lions FC	22	17	2	3	57	22	53
2	Peninsula Power	22	13	6	3	49	27	45
3	Moreton City Excelsior	22	12	3	7	51	35	39
4	Gold Coast Knights	22	11	5	6	46	32	38
5	Brisbane City	22	9	7	6	47	48	34
6	Wynnum Wolves	22	9	6	7	36	40	33
7	Eastern Suburbs	22	9	2	11	34	35	29
8	Brisbane Olympic FC	22	8	2	12	39	43	26
9	Magic United	22	7	1	14	33	59	22
10	Rochedale Rovers	22	6	3	13	34	52	21
11	Gold Coast United	22	6	2	14	26	39	20
12	Brisbane Roar NPL	22	5	1	16	32	52	16

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Moreton City Excelsior	Gold Coast Knights
Lions FC	0-2 L	2-1 W
Brisbane Roar NPL	0-2 L	2-1 W
Peninsula Power	2-2 D	2-2 D
Gold Coast United	1-0 W	0-1 L
Wynnum Wolves	2-2 D	1-2 L
Rochedale Rovers	5-2 W	1-4 L
Eastern Suburbs	0-0 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Moreton City Excelsior

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
08/08	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
02/08	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
18/07	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	2-2	3	3	D
11/07	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	4-3	4	11	W
04/07	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
28/06	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
20/06	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	2-2	10	4	D
16/06	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	2-0	5-2	10	2	W
05/06	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-0	4	2	D

Gold Coast Knights

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	2-1	3	9	W
08/08	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	2-2	9	2	D
01/08	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
25/07	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
18/07	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	1-2	5	1	L
12/07	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
07/07	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
04/07	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
26/06	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-4	6	2	L
23/06	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	3-0	4-1	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast Knights?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Moreton City Excelsior win (51%). Probabilities: Moreton City Excelsior 51%, draw 23%, Gold Coast Knights 27%.

How many goals are expected in Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast Knights?

The model expects 3.46 goals (Moreton City Excelsior 2.03 · Gold Coast Knights 1.44), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast Knights?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.