Football · Australia NPL Queensland · 05/09, 09:00

Prediction: Peninsula Power vs Moreton City Excelsior

Team pages: Peninsula Power · Moreton City Excelsior

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.41Total

Peninsula Power1.67

Moreton City Excelsior1.75

1X2

36% 24% 40%

Peninsula Power Draw Moreton City Excelsior

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Peninsula Power 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWDDLDDL

Moreton City Excelsior 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWDLWLD

Head-to-head

Peninsula Power 1–3–2 Moreton City Excelsior (6 last)

Moreton City Excelsior2-2Peninsula Power
Peninsula Power1-4Moreton City Excelsior
Peninsula Power0-2Moreton City Excelsior
Moreton City Excelsior3-3Peninsula Power
Moreton City Excelsior1-3Peninsula Power
Moreton City Excelsior2-2Peninsula Power

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Peninsula Power 1506 · Moreton City Excelsior 1520

	Peninsula Power	Draw	Moreton City Excelsior
Our model	36%	25%	39%
Market	36%	24%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Moreton City Excelsior: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Peninsula Power	Moreton City Excelsior
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.4	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.8	1.5 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.75

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.45▲	Bet365 2.45
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.40 → 2.25▼	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
05:08 +4’	2.30	3.75	2.40
02:20 +9’	2.45▲	3.75	2.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Peninsula Power 1–3–2 Moreton City Excelsior

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Australia NPL Queensland	Moreton City Excelsior	2-2 HT 2-1	Peninsula Power
18/04/26 Australia NPL Queensland	Peninsula Power	1-4 HT 0-1	Moreton City Excelsior
17/06/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Peninsula Power	0-2 HT 0-1	Moreton City Excelsior
10/05/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Moreton City Excelsior	3-3 HT 1-1	Peninsula Power
15/01/25 Australia Friendlies	Moreton City Excelsior	1-3 HT 1-1	Peninsula Power
01/09/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Moreton City Excelsior	2-2 HT 1-1	Peninsula Power

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lions FC	22	17	2	3	57	22	53
2	Peninsula Power	22	13	6	3	49	27	45
3	Moreton City Excelsior	22	12	3	7	51	35	39
4	Gold Coast Knights	22	11	5	6	46	32	38
5	Brisbane City	22	9	7	6	47	48	34
6	Wynnum Wolves	22	9	6	7	36	40	33
7	Eastern Suburbs	22	9	2	11	34	35	29
8	Brisbane Olympic FC	22	8	2	12	39	43	26
9	Magic United	22	7	1	14	33	59	22
10	Rochedale Rovers	22	6	3	13	34	52	21
11	Gold Coast United	22	6	2	14	26	39	20
12	Brisbane Roar NPL	22	5	1	16	32	52	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Peninsula Power	Moreton City Excelsior
Lions FC	1-4 L	0-2 L
Gold Coast Knights	2-2 D	0-0 D
Wynnum Wolves	0-0 D	2-2 D
Brisbane Roar NPL	3-1 W	0-2 L
Brisbane Olympic FC	3-1 W	2-1 W
Rochedale Rovers	2-0 W	5-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Peninsula Power

WWWWDDLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	1-2	1-4	6	5	L
14/08	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	2-2	6	4	D
08/08	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	1-2	2-2	4	2	D
01/08	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
18/07	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	1-2	2-2	7	3	D
10/07	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
04/07	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	3-1	3	3	W
27/06	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	3-1	10	5	W
21/06	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	3-1	8	4	W
06/06	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	2-0	7	3	W

Moreton City Excelsior

WDWLWDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
14/08	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
08/08	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
02/08	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
18/07	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	2-2	3	3	D
11/07	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	4-3	4	11	W
04/07	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
28/06	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
20/06	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	2-2	10	4	D
16/06	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	2-0	5-2	10	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Peninsula Power vs Moreton City Excelsior?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Moreton City Excelsior win (40%). Probabilities: Peninsula Power 36%, draw 24%, Moreton City Excelsior 40%.

How many goals are expected in Peninsula Power vs Moreton City Excelsior?

The model expects 3.41 goals (Peninsula Power 1.67 · Moreton City Excelsior 1.75), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Peninsula Power vs Moreton City Excelsior?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.