Football · Australia NPL Queensland · 30/08, 09:00

Prediction: Lions FC vs Peninsula Power

Team pages: Lions FC · Peninsula Power

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Lions FC1.77

Peninsula Power1.39

1X2

46% 24% 30%

Lions FC Draw Peninsula Power

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Lions FC 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWWWWW

Peninsula Power 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDDLDD

Head-to-head

Lions FC 3–1–2 Peninsula Power (6 last)

Lions FC1-0Peninsula Power
Peninsula Power3-2Lions FC
Lions FC3-0Peninsula Power
Peninsula Power1-2Lions FC
Lions FC1-1Peninsula Power
Peninsula Power3-1Lions FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lions FC 1614 · Peninsula Power 1546

	Lions FC	Draw	Peninsula Power
Our model	45%	25%	29%
Market	46%	24%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lions FC (rating 1614 vs 1546).
H2H favours Lions FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lions FC	Peninsula Power
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 0.7	2.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.2	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.8	3 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.80

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 06:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 1.95▼	Pinn 1.96 ★
X	3.75 → 3.80▲	Bet365 3.80
2	2.70 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
06:19 +1’	2.10	3.75	2.70
01:18 +5’	2.38▲	3.70▼	2.38▼
09:20 +5’	1.75▼	4.00▲	3.50▲
02:43 +5’	1.95▲	3.90▼	3.00▼
04:21 +6’	1.95	3.60▼	3.10▲
05:56 +7’	1.95	3.80▲	3.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:24 +1’	1.75	3.72	3.35
10:33 +1’	1.98▲	3.63▼	2.95▼
20:29 +13’	1.96▼	3.66▲	2.99▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lions FC 3–1–2 Peninsula Power

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 Australia NPL Queensland	Lions FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Peninsula Power
25/04/26 Australia NPL Queensland	Peninsula Power	3-2 HT 2-1	Lions FC
06/09/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Lions FC	3-0 HT 2-0	Peninsula Power
02/08/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Peninsula Power	1-2 HT 0-1	Lions FC
24/05/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Lions FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Peninsula Power
21/05/25 Australia Cup Qualifying	Peninsula Power	3-1 HT 2-1	Lions FC

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lions FC	22	17	2	3	57	22	53
2	Peninsula Power	22	13	6	3	49	27	45
3	Moreton City Excelsior	22	12	3	7	51	35	39
4	Gold Coast Knights	22	11	5	6	46	32	38
5	Brisbane City	22	9	7	6	47	48	34
6	Wynnum Wolves	22	9	6	7	36	40	33
7	Eastern Suburbs	22	9	2	11	34	35	29
8	Brisbane Olympic FC	22	8	2	12	39	43	26
9	Magic United	22	7	1	14	33	59	22
10	Rochedale Rovers	22	6	3	13	34	52	21
11	Gold Coast United	22	6	2	14	26	39	20
12	Brisbane Roar NPL	22	5	1	16	32	52	16

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lions FC	Peninsula Power
Moreton City Excelsior	2-0 W	2-2 D
Brisbane Roar NPL	4-2 W	3-1 W
Gold Coast United	1-0 W	4-0 W
Eastern Suburbs	1-0 W	3-1 W
Gold Coast Knights	1-2 L	2-2 D
Brisbane Olympic FC	2-0 W	3-1 W
Wynnum Wolves	6-2 W	0-0 D
Rochedale Rovers	2-1 W	2-0 W
Brisbane City	4-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	8 W 0 D 1 L	5 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Peninsula Power (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lions FC

WWWWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
07/08	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	1-2	4-2	6	5	W
01/08	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
18/07	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	1-0	8	3	W
12/07	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
07/07	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	1-2	1	2	L
04/07	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
28/06	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	2-0	6-2	13	2	W
21/06	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
06/06	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	3-0	4-0	8	4	W

Peninsula Power

WWWWWDDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	2-2	6	4	D
08/08	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	1-2	2-2	4	2	D
01/08	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
18/07	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	1-2	2-2	7	3	D
10/07	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
04/07	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	3-1	3	3	W
27/06	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	3-1	10	5	W
21/06	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	3-1	8	4	W
06/06	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
30/05	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	4-0	9	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lions FC vs Peninsula Power?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lions FC win (46%). Probabilities: Lions FC 46%, draw 24%, Peninsula Power 30%.

How many goals are expected in Lions FC vs Peninsula Power?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Lions FC 1.77 · Peninsula Power 1.39), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Lions FC vs Peninsula Power?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.