Football · Rwanda National League · 15/09, 15:00

Prediction: Etincelles vs Musanze FC

Team pages: Etincelles · Musanze FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Etincelles1.18

Musanze FC1.07

1X2

37% 31% 32%

Etincelles Draw Musanze FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Etincelles 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

LWDDDWWWDW

Musanze FC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDDDWDLW

Head-to-head

Etincelles 3–3–0 Musanze FC (6 last)

Etincelles1-0Musanze FC
Musanze FC1-3Etincelles
Etincelles3-0Musanze FC
Musanze FC0-0Etincelles
Musanze FC1-1Etincelles
Musanze FC0-0Etincelles

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Etincelles 1548 · Musanze FC 1461

	Etincelles	Draw	Musanze FC
Our model	37%	31%	32%
Market	38%	30%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Etincelles (rating 1548 vs 1461).
H2H favours Etincelles: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Etincelles	Musanze FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	0.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 5	1.5 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.00

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 12:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.40▼	Bet365 2.40
X	2.90 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00
2	2.70 → 2.80▲	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:53 +13’	2.50	2.90	2.70
11:00 +2’	2.15▼	3.00▲	3.20▲
11:57 +6’	2.40▲	3.00	2.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Etincelles 3–3–0 Musanze FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 Rwanda National League	Etincelles	1-0 HT 1-0	Musanze FC
13/12/25 Rwanda National League	Musanze FC	1-3 HT 0-3	Etincelles
01/05/25 Rwanda National League	Etincelles	3-0 HT 1-0	Musanze FC
30/11/24 Rwanda National League	Musanze FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Etincelles
17/02/24 Rwanda National League	Musanze FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Etincelles
05/02/23 Rwanda National League	Musanze FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Etincelles

Standings · Rwanda National League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gicumbi FC	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
2	Etincelles	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
3	Marines FC	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
3	Mukura	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
5	Amagaju	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
6	Musanze FC	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
7	Gorilla FC	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
8	Sunrise FC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
9	AS Kigali	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
9	Etoile de L'Est	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
11	Al Hilal Omdurman	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Al Merrikh	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	APR FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Bugesera	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Rayon Sports FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Police FC	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
17	Gasogi Utd	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
17	SC Kiyovu	2	0	0	2	0	2	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Etincelles	Musanze FC
Gorilla FC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Al Hilal Omdurman	2-1 W	0-2 L
Marines FC	3-2 W	1-1 D
Gasogi Utd	2-2 D	3-2 W
Amagaju	0-0 D	0-2 L
SC Kiyovu	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Etincelles (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Etincelles

LWDDDWWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
05/09	Sunrise FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
30/05	Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League	0-0	2-1	9	3	W
26/05	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	2-0	4-0	8	3	W
16/05	Marines FC Rwanda National League	1-1	3-2	7	0	W
10/05	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	1-2	2-2	7	6	D
02/05	Amagaju Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
26/04	SC Kiyovu Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
18/04	APR FC Rwanda National League	2-0	2-1	3	2	W
04/04	Bugesera Rwanda National League	0-2	0-3	5	1	L

Musanze FC

LLLDDDWDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	SC Kiyovu Rwanda National League	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
30/05	AS Kigali Rwanda National League	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
24/05	Marines FC Rwanda National League	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
17/05	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	2-1	3-2	4	2	W
09/05	Police FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
06/05	Rutsiro FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
02/05	SC Kiyovu Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
25/04	Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
17/04	Amagaju Rwanda National League	0-2	0-2	5	1	L
05/04	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	1-1	1-2	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Etincelles vs Musanze FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Etincelles win (37%). Probabilities: Etincelles 37%, draw 31%, Musanze FC 32%.

How many goals are expected in Etincelles vs Musanze FC?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Etincelles 1.18 · Musanze FC 1.07), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Etincelles vs Musanze FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.