Football · Rwanda National League · 17/09, 15:00

Prediction: Mukura vs Police FC

Team pages: Mukura · Police FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.78Total

Mukura0.93

Police FC0.85

1X2

36% 33% 31%

Mukura Draw Police FC

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 55% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Mukura 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLDWDLDW

Police FC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LLWDDDDDWL

Head-to-head

Mukura 2–3–1 Police FC (6 last)

Mukura0-0Police FC
Police FC1-1Mukura
Police FC1-0Mukura
Police FC0-0Mukura
Mukura2-0Police FC
Mukura2-0Police FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mukura 1479 · Police FC 1481

	Mukura	Draw	Police FC
Our model	34%	36%	30%
Market	37%	31%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 1.78 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Mukura: 2-3-1.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mukura	Police FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	0.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 5	3.3 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.45

X2.88

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 22.00

Under 21.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
05:40 +18’	2.45	2.88	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mukura 2–3–1 Police FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/05/26 Rwanda National League	Mukura	0-0 HT 0-0	Police FC
01/11/25 Rwanda National League	Police FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Mukura
03/05/25 Rwanda Cup	Police FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Mukura
06/04/25 Rwanda National League	Police FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Mukura
07/11/24 Rwanda National League	Mukura	2-0 HT 1-0	Police FC
08/02/24 Rwanda National League	Mukura	2-0 HT 2-0	Police FC

Standings · Rwanda National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gicumbi FC	3	3	0	0	5	2	9
2	Etincelles	3	2	1	0	2	0	7
3	Marines FC	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
3	Mukura	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
5	Amagaju	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
6	Gorilla FC	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
6	Musanze FC	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
8	SC Kiyovu	3	1	0	2	1	2	3
9	Sunrise FC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
10	AS Kigali	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
11	Etoile de L'Est	3	0	1	2	1	4	1
12	Al Hilal Omdurman	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Al Merrikh	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	APR FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Rayon Sports FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Police FC	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
17	Bugesera	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
18	Gasogi Utd	1	0	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mukura	Police FC
Gasogi Utd	2-0 W	1-0 W
Amagaju	0-0 D	1-2 L
Gicumbi FC	2-3 L	1-2 L
Bugesera	2-2 D	0-1 L
Gorilla FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Mukura (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mukura

DWLLDWDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	1-0	2-0	5	0	W
30/05	Amagaju Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
24/05	Gicumbi FC Rwanda National League	2-1	2-3	–	–	L
16/05	Bugesera Rwanda National League	0-1	2-2	5	3	D
09/05	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	0-1	2-1	8	5	W
06/05	Police FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
03/05	Rutsiro FC Rwanda National League	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
25/04	APR FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-3	7	1	L
18/04	Al Merrikh Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
03/04	AS Kigali Rwanda National League	0-0	1-1	6	4	D

Police FC

LLWDDDDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Gicumbi FC Rwanda National League	1-1	1-2	9	2	L
28/05	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	12	1	W
24/05	SC Kiyovu Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
16/05	Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League	0-1	1-1	10	2	D
09/05	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
06/05	Mukura Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
01/05	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
25/04	Marines FC Rwanda National League	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
19/04	Bugesera Rwanda National League	0-1	0-1	8	1	L
04/04	Amagaju Rwanda National League	0-0	1-2	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mukura vs Police FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mukura win (36%). Probabilities: Mukura 36%, draw 33%, Police FC 31%.

How many goals are expected in Mukura vs Police FC?

The model expects 1.78 goals (Mukura 0.93 · Police FC 0.85), with a 57% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Mukura vs Police FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.