Football · Rwanda National League · 16/09, 15:00

Prediction: AS Kigali vs Al Hilal Omdurman

Team pages: AS Kigali

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

AS Kigali0.61

Al Hilal Omdurman1.79

1X2

12% 23% 65%

AS Kigali Draw Al Hilal Omdurman

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

AS Kigali 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLLWLWLD

Al Hilal Omdurman 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWDDL

Head-to-head

AS Kigali 0–2 Al Hilal Omdurman (2 last)

AS Kigali0-2Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman4-2AS Kigali

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AS Kigali 1469 · Al Hilal Omdurman 1618

	AS Kigali	Draw	Al Hilal Omdurman
Our model	11%	24%	65%
Market	12%	22%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Hilal Omdurman (rating 1469 vs 1618).
H2H favours Al Hilal Omdurman: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AS Kigali	Al Hilal Omdurman
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.2	1.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.8 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	56/44/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.4	0.7 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

17.50

X4.00

21.36

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.85

2 (-1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:04 +8’	7.50	4.00	1.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AS Kigali 0–0–2 Al Hilal Omdurman

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Rwanda National League	AS Kigali	0-2 HT 0-1	Al Hilal Omdurman
29/12/25 Rwanda National League	Al Hilal Omdurman	4-2 HT 1-1	AS Kigali

Standings · Rwanda National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gicumbi FC	3	3	0	0	5	2	9
2	Etincelles	3	2	1	0	2	0	7
3	Marines FC	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
3	Mukura	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
5	Amagaju	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
6	Gorilla FC	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
6	Musanze FC	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
8	SC Kiyovu	3	1	0	2	1	2	3
9	Sunrise FC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
10	AS Kigali	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
11	Etoile de L'Est	3	0	1	2	1	4	1
12	Al Hilal Omdurman	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Al Merrikh	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	APR FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Rayon Sports FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Police FC	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
17	Bugesera	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
18	Gasogi Utd	1	0	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AS Kigali	Al Hilal Omdurman
Musanze FC	2-1 W	2-0 W
APR FC	1-2 L	4-0 W
Gasogi Utd	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Al Hilal Omdurman (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AS Kigali

WDLLLWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Etoile de L'Est Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
06/09	Marines FC Rwanda National League	0-2	0-2	4	5	L
30/05	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	1-0	2-1	11	3	W
22/05	Rutsiro FC Rwanda National League	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
15/05	Gicumbi FC Rwanda National League	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
10/05	APR FC Rwanda National League	0-1	1-2	1	4	L
06/05	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	0-2	1-2	6	6	L
03/05	Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League	0-1	0-2	2	1	L
24/04	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
17/04	Marines FC Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	1	6	W

Al Hilal Omdurman

WWWWWWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/05	Etincelles Rwanda National League	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
22/05	Al Merrikh Rwanda National League	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
16/05	Police FC Rwanda National League	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
13/05	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	1-0	2-1	6	4	W
13/05	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	–	2-1	–	–	W
10/05	AS Muhanga Rwanda National League	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
07/05	APR FC Rwanda National League	2-0	4-0	2	4	W
03/05	AS Kigali Rwanda National League	1-0	2-0	11	1	W
25/04	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
18/04	SC Kiyovu Rwanda National League	2-0	2-1	1	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AS Kigali vs Al Hilal Omdurman?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Al Hilal Omdurman win (65%). Probabilities: AS Kigali 12%, draw 23%, Al Hilal Omdurman 65%.

How many goals are expected in AS Kigali vs Al Hilal Omdurman?

The model expects 2.4 goals (AS Kigali 0.61 · Al Hilal Omdurman 1.79), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in AS Kigali vs Al Hilal Omdurman?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.