Football · Rwanda National League · 16/09, 18:30
Prediction: APR FC vs Marines FC
Team pages: Marines FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.83Total
APR FC1.91
Marines FC0.91
1X2
APR FC
Draw
Marines FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
APR FC
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Marines FC
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
APR FC
4–2–0
Marines FC
(6 last)
- Marines FC2-2APR FC
- APR FC2-1Marines FC
- APR FC3-0Marines FC
- Marines FC1-2APR FC
- APR FC5-2Marines FC
- Marines FC2-2APR FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · APR FC 1564 · Marines FC 1485
| APR FC | Draw | Marines FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| Market | 60% | 24% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours APR FC (rating 1564 vs 1485).
- H2H favours APR FC: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| APR FC | Marines FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.9 | 1.6 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 1.1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.5 | 1.7 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.1 | 3.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · APR FC 4–2–0 Marines FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 Rwanda National League | Marines FC | 2-2 HT 2-0 | APR FC |
| 25/11/25 Rwanda National League | APR FC | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Marines FC |
| 07/05/25 Rwanda National League | APR FC | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Marines FC |
| 08/01/25 Rwanda National League | Marines FC | 1-2 HT 0-0 | APR FC |
| 07/02/24 Rwanda National League | APR FC | 5-2 HT 1-1 | Marines FC |
| 23/09/23 Rwanda National League | Marines FC | 2-2 HT 0-1 | APR FC |
Standings · Rwanda National League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gicumbi FC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Etincelles | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Marines FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Mukura | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Amagaju | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Gorilla FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Musanze FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | SC Kiyovu | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Sunrise FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | AS Kigali | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Etoile de L'Est | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 12 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Al Merrikh | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | APR FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Rayon Sports FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Police FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Bugesera | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | Gasogi Utd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | APR FC | Marines FC |
|---|---|---|
| AS Kigali | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Al Hilal Omdurman | 0-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Rayon Sports FC | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Etincelles | 1-2 L | 2-3 L |
| AS Muhanga | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Marines FC (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
APR FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Gicumbi FC Rwanda National League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 27/05 | Al Merrikh Rwanda National League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Rutsiro FC Rwanda National League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 10/05 | AS Kigali Rwanda National League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 07/05 | Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Rayon Sports FC Rwanda National League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 25/04 | Mukura Rwanda National League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | Etincelles Rwanda National League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 05/04 | AS Muhanga Rwanda National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 20/03 | Amagaju Rwanda National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
Marines FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | AS Kigali Rwanda National League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 30/05 | AS Muhanga Rwanda National League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Musanze FC Rwanda National League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Etincelles Rwanda National League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 09/05 | Rayon Sports FC Rwanda National League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 06/05 | Bugesera Rwanda National League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 01/05 | Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 25/04 | Police FC Rwanda National League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 17/04 | AS Kigali Rwanda National League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 06/04 | Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in APR FC vs Marines FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a APR FC win (60%). Probabilities: APR FC 60%, draw 24%, Marines FC 16%.
How many goals are expected in APR FC vs Marines FC?
The model expects 2.83 goals (APR FC 1.91 · Marines FC 0.91), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in APR FC vs Marines FC?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.