Football · Germany Bundesliga II · 30/08, 13:30

Prediction: Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel

Team pages: Magdeburg · Holstein Kiel

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.79Total

Magdeburg2.07

Holstein Kiel1.71

1X2

45% 25% 31%

Magdeburg Draw Holstein Kiel

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Magdeburg 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWWLLW

Holstein Kiel 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWLLDD

Head-to-head

Magdeburg 3–3–0 Holstein Kiel (6 last)

Holstein Kiel1-3Magdeburg
Magdeburg3-3Holstein Kiel
Magdeburg1-1Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel2-2Magdeburg
Holstein Kiel2-4Magdeburg
Holstein Kiel2-3Magdeburg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Magdeburg 1607 · Holstein Kiel 1524

	Magdeburg	Draw	Holstein Kiel
Our model	46%	23%	32%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.79 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Magdeburg (rating 1607 vs 1524).
H2H favours Magdeburg: 3-3-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Magdeburg	Holstein Kiel
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.5	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.1	2.3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	5.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.21
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.75 ★
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +3’	2.10	3.50	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:26 +1’	2.21	3.75	3.04

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Magdeburg 3–3–0 Holstein Kiel

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Germany Bundesliga II	Holstein Kiel	1-3 HT 0-2	Magdeburg
13/12/25 Germany Bundesliga II	Magdeburg	3-3 HT 2-1	Holstein Kiel
02/02/24 Germany Bundesliga II	Magdeburg	1-1 HT 0-1	Holstein Kiel
01/11/23 Germany DFB Pokal	Holstein Kiel	2-2 HT 0-2	Magdeburg
20/08/23 Germany Bundesliga II	Holstein Kiel	2-4 HT 1-2	Magdeburg
11/02/23 Germany Bundesliga II	Holstein Kiel	2-3 HT 1-1	Magdeburg

Standings · Germany Bundesliga II

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nurnberg	2	2	0	0	7	2	6
2	Hertha Berlin	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	Karlsruher SC	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
4	Wolfsburg	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
5	Eintracht Braunschweig	2	1	0	1	6	2	3
6	Arminia Bielefeld	2	1	0	1	4	2	3
7	Bochum	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
8	Cottbus	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
9	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	5	7	3
10	Magdeburg	2	1	0	1	4	6	3
11	Dynamo Dresden	2	1	0	1	1	3	3
12	Holstein Kiel	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
13	St Pauli	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
14	Kaiserslautern	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
15	Darmstadt	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
16	Greuther Furth	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
17	Hannover 96	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
18	VfL Osnabruck	2	0	0	2	3	7	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Magdeburg	Holstein Kiel
Eintracht Braunschweig	1-6 L	2-0 W
Kaiserslautern	0-1 L	3-0 W
Hertha Berlin	1-0 W	1-0 W
Fortuna Dusseldorf	2-0 W	2-1 W
Bochum	4-1 W	3-2 W
SC Preussen Munster	3-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Magdeburg (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Magdeburg

WWLWLWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	VfL Osnabruck Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	3-0	10	2	W
08/08	Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II	0-4	1-6	5	6	L
17/05	Kaiserslautern Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
09/05	Holstein Kiel Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	3-1	6	4	W
03/05	Hertha Berlin Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
26/04	Nurnberg Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
18/04	Fortuna Dusseldorf Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	2-0	7	4	W
12/04	Paderborn Germany Bundesliga II	2-3	3-4	7	3	L
04/04	Bochum Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	4-1	4	5	W
22/03	SC Preussen Munster Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	3-1	3	3	W

Holstein Kiel

WDWWWWLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	St Pauli Germany Bundesliga II	0-2	2-2	5	6	D
08/08	Darmstadt Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	2-2	4	5	D
17/05	Dynamo Dresden Germany Bundesliga II	0-2	1-2	9	5	L
09/05	Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II	0-2	1-3	10	4	L
02/05	Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
25/04	Hertha Berlin Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	1-0	3	8	W
17/04	Kaiserslautern Germany Bundesliga II	3-0	3-0	5	3	W
10/04	Fortuna Dusseldorf Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	2-1	3	6	W
05/04	SC Preussen Munster Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-0	11	6	D
22/03	Bochum Germany Bundesliga II	2-1	3-2	3	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Magdeburg win (45%). Probabilities: Magdeburg 45%, draw 25%, Holstein Kiel 31%.

How many goals are expected in Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel?

The model expects 3.79 goals (Magdeburg 2.07 · Holstein Kiel 1.71), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.