Football · Germany Bundesliga II · 29/08, 20:30

Prediction: Nurnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld

Team pages: Nurnberg · Arminia Bielefeld

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

Nurnberg1.87

Arminia Bielefeld1.52

1X2

45% 25% 30%

Nurnberg Draw Arminia Bielefeld

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Nurnberg 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDLDWDWDWW

Arminia Bielefeld 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDWDLWLW

Head-to-head

Nurnberg 2–3–1 Arminia Bielefeld (6 last)

Arminia Bielefeld1-1Nurnberg
Nurnberg2-0Arminia Bielefeld
Arminia Bielefeld2-2Nurnberg
Nurnberg1-0Arminia Bielefeld
Arminia Bielefeld1-1Nurnberg
Nurnberg1-5Arminia Bielefeld

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nurnberg 1617 · Arminia Bielefeld 1567

	Nurnberg	Draw	Arminia Bielefeld
Our model	45%	24%	31%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nurnberg (rating 1617 vs 1567).
H2H favours Nurnberg: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nurnberg	Arminia Bielefeld
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1	1.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5	3 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.60

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.23 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.77
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:52 +1’	2.10	3.60	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:52 +2’	2.29	3.77	2.89
11:54 +2’	2.28▼	3.77	2.90▲
22:47 +2’	2.23▼	3.77	2.99▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nurnberg 2–3–1 Arminia Bielefeld

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Germany Bundesliga II	Arminia Bielefeld	1-1 HT 0-1	Nurnberg
23/11/25 Germany Bundesliga II	Nurnberg	2-0 HT 0-0	Arminia Bielefeld
17/03/23 Germany Bundesliga II	Arminia Bielefeld	2-2 HT 2-0	Nurnberg
09/09/22 Germany Bundesliga II	Nurnberg	1-0 HT 0-0	Arminia Bielefeld
06/06/20 Germany Bundesliga II	Arminia Bielefeld	1-1 HT 1-1	Nurnberg
10/11/19 Germany Bundesliga II	Nurnberg	1-5 HT 0-3	Arminia Bielefeld

Standings · Germany Bundesliga II

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nurnberg	2	2	0	0	7	2	6
2	Hertha Berlin	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	Karlsruher SC	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
4	Wolfsburg	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
5	Eintracht Braunschweig	2	1	0	1	6	2	3
6	Arminia Bielefeld	2	1	0	1	4	2	3
7	Bochum	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
8	Cottbus	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
9	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	5	7	3
10	Magdeburg	2	1	0	1	4	6	3
11	Dynamo Dresden	2	1	0	1	1	3	3
12	Holstein Kiel	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
13	St Pauli	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
14	Kaiserslautern	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
15	Darmstadt	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
16	Greuther Furth	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
17	Hannover 96	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
18	VfL Osnabruck	2	0	0	2	3	7	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nurnberg

WDLDWDWDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Greuther Furth Germany Bundesliga II	2-2	4-2	3	5	W
09/08	Dynamo Dresden Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
17/05	Hannover 96 Germany Bundesliga II	1-2	3-3	7	8	D
09/05	Schalke Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
03/05	Greuther Furth Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
26/04	Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
18/04	Arminia Bielefeld Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
11/04	Dynamo Dresden Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-2	5	2	L
05/04	Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
21/03	Kaiserslautern Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	3-0	11	4	W

Arminia Bielefeld

LWLDWDLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Cottbus Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	3-0	7	4	W
08/08	Karlsruher SC Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
17/05	Hertha Berlin Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	6-1	9	3	W
08/05	Kaiserslautern Germany Bundesliga II	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
02/05	Bochum Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-1	8	2	D
25/04	SC Preussen Munster Germany Bundesliga II	3-1	3-2	1	3	W
18/04	Nurnberg Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
10/04	Karlsruher SC Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	1-4	13	3	L
04/04	Darmstadt Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	2-1	8	7	W
21/03	Elversberg Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	1-3	1	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nurnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nurnberg win (45%). Probabilities: Nurnberg 45%, draw 25%, Arminia Bielefeld 30%.

How many goals are expected in Nurnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld?

The model expects 3.39 goals (Nurnberg 1.87 · Arminia Bielefeld 1.52), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Nurnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.