Football · Australia Tasmania Premier League · 22/08, 08:45

Prediction: Kingborough Lions vs Launceston City

Team pages: Kingborough Lions · Launceston City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.59Total

Kingborough Lions2.39

Launceston City1.2

1X2

64% 19% 17%

Kingborough Lions Draw Launceston City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Kingborough Lions 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWLWWL

Launceston City 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWDLLD

Head-to-head

Kingborough Lions 2–1–3 Launceston City (6 last)

Launceston City1-3Kingborough Lions
Kingborough Lions2-1Launceston City
Kingborough Lions1-1Launceston City
Launceston City2-1Kingborough Lions
Launceston City3-1Kingborough Lions
Kingborough Lions0-4Launceston City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kingborough Lions 1544 · Launceston City 1509

	Kingborough Lions	Draw	Launceston City
Our model	63%	20%	17%
Market	64%	18%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.59 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Launceston City: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kingborough Lions	Launceston City
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.2	1.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.6	2.3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.40

X5.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
07:34 +21’	1.40	5.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kingborough Lions 2–1–3 Launceston City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Australia Tasmania Premier League	Launceston City	1-3 HT 1-2	Kingborough Lions
02/05/26 Australia Tasmania Premier League	Kingborough Lions	2-1 HT 1-0	Launceston City
23/08/25 Australia Tasmania Premier League	Kingborough Lions	1-1 HT 0-0	Launceston City
28/06/25 Australia Tasmania Premier League	Launceston City	2-1 HT 1-0	Kingborough Lions
26/04/25 Australia Tasmania Premier League	Launceston City	3-1 HT 0-0	Kingborough Lions
19/04/25 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying	Kingborough Lions	0-4 HT 0-4	Launceston City

Standings · Australia Tasmania Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	South Hobart	18	15	2	1	65	16	47
2	Devonport City	18	14	1	3	57	19	43
3	Kingborough Lions	18	14	1	3	51	16	43
4	Launceston City	18	10	1	7	40	36	31
5	Clarence Zebras FC	18	8	3	7	30	29	27
6	Riverside Olympic	18	7	3	8	31	33	24
7	South East United FC	18	7	0	11	26	51	21
8	Glenorchy Knights FC	18	5	2	11	23	33	17
9	Launceston United	18	1	2	15	17	61	5
10	Ulverstone	18	1	1	16	15	61	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kingborough Lions	Launceston City
Devonport City	1-2 L	0-6 L
Clarence Zebras FC	3-1 W	1-1 D
Launceston United	2-0 W	4-2 W
Glenorchy Knights FC	2-0 W	2-1 W
Ulverstone	1-2 L	3-1 W
South Hobart	1-1 D	1-3 L
South East United FC	9-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Kingborough Lions (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Kingborough Lions

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Devonport City Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-2	1-2	6	6	L
08/08	Clarence Zebras FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	1-0	3-1	9	4	W
01/08	Launceston United Australia Tasmania Premier League	1-0	2-0	10	3	W
26/07	Melbourne Victory Australia Cup	0-2	0-4	4	3	L
18/07	Launceston City Australia Tasmania Premier League	2-1	3-1	4	1	W
10/07	Glenorchy Knights FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	1-0	2-0	11	4	W
04/07	Ulverstone Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
28/06	Devonport City Australia Tasmania Premier League	1-0	2-1	3	7	W
21/06	South Hobart Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
14/06	South East United FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	7-0	9-0	10	1	W

Launceston City

WWWWLWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Clarence Zebras FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	7	D
08/08	Devonport City Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-3	0-6	3	2	L
01/08	South Hobart Australia Tasmania Premier League	1-2	1-3	2	1	L
25/07	Riverside Olympic Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
22/07	Launceston United Australia Tasmania Premier League	2-1	4-2	10	0	W
18/07	Kingborough Lions Australia Tasmania Premier League	1-2	1-3	8	1	L
11/07	Clarence Zebras FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	2-0	2-1	0	4	W
28/06	South East United FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
14/06	Ulverstone Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-0	3-1	9	1	W
30/05	Glenorchy Knights FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-0	2-1	8	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kingborough Lions vs Launceston City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kingborough Lions win (64%). Probabilities: Kingborough Lions 64%, draw 19%, Launceston City 17%.

How many goals are expected in Kingborough Lions vs Launceston City?

The model expects 3.59 goals (Kingborough Lions 2.39 · Launceston City 1.2), with a 54% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Kingborough Lions vs Launceston City?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.