Football · Iraq Stars League · 15/08, 20:00

Prediction: Al Karma vs Mosul FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

Al Karma1.56

Mosul FC0.81

1X2

55% 27% 19%

Al Karma Draw Mosul FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Al Karma 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

WDDDLDWDDW

Mosul FC 1-7-2 (W-D-L)

DDDWDLDDLD

Head-to-head

Al Karma 1–1–0 Mosul FC (2 last)

Al Karma1-1Mosul FC
Mosul FC1-3Al Karma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Karma 1540 · Mosul FC 1481

	Al Karma	Draw	Mosul FC
Our model	54%	28%	18%
Market	55%	26%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Karma (rating 1540 vs 1481).
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Karma	Mosul FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.6	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.5	1.4 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.4	5.6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.50

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.65▲	Pinn 1.73 ★
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50
2	5.50 → 4.75▼	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.2% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
21:56 +27’	1.53	3.60	5.50
08:20 +14’	1.65▲	3.50▼	4.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:33 +1’	1.73	3.22	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Karma 1–1–0 Mosul FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/03/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Karma	1-1 HT 0-0	Mosul FC
18/01/26 Iraq Stars League	Mosul FC	1-3 HT 1-3	Al Karma

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Naft SC	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
2	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
2	Newroz SC	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
4	Al Jolan SC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
4	Naft Maysan	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
6	Al Gharraf	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Al Kahrabaa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Al Karma	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Al Minaa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Mosul FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Al Shorta SC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Al Talaba	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Al Zawra'a	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Diyala FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Duhok	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Erbil SC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Ghaz Al Shamal	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Karbalaa FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Zakho	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Al Karkh	1	0	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Karma	Mosul FC
Diyala FC	1-0 W	4-1 W
Al Talaba	1-1 D	2-2 D
Naft Maysan	1-1 D	1-1 D
Al Quwa Al Jawiya	3-0 W	1-2 L
Al Naft SC	0-0 D	0-0 D
Newroz SC	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Mosul FC (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Karma

WDDDLDWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/05	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
19/05	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
14/05	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
10/05	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	3-0	3-0	3	9	W
05/05	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
01/05	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	3	9	L
26/04	Al Qasim SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-2	8	4	D
22/04	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
17/04	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
12/04	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	1-0	3-0	10	6	W

Mosul FC

DDDWDLDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/05	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
20/05	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
15/05	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	3-3	2	4	D
11/05	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-2	3	8	D
06/05	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	1	8	L
02/05	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	5	7	D
26/04	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	4-1	–	–	W
22/04	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
17/04	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
13/04	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-1	2	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Karma vs Mosul FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Karma win (55%). Probabilities: Al Karma 55%, draw 27%, Mosul FC 19%.

How many goals are expected in Al Karma vs Mosul FC?

The model expects 2.37 goals (Al Karma 1.56 · Mosul FC 0.81), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Karma vs Mosul FC?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.