Football · Spain Tercera Group 1 · 18/10, 11:30

Prediction: Gran Pena vs Celtiga

Team pages: Gran Pena · Celtiga

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Gran Pena1.62

Celtiga1.33

1X2

43% 27% 30%

Gran Pena Draw Celtiga

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Gran Pena 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Celtiga 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Gran Pena 0–1–1 Celtiga (2 last)

Celtiga1-1Gran Pena
Gran Pena2-4Celtiga

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gran Pena 1505 · Celtiga 1459

	Gran Pena	Draw	Celtiga
Our model	43%	27%	30%
Market	43%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gran Pena (rating 1505 vs 1459).
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gran Pena	Celtiga
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.5	0.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/22/33%	50/25/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.6	0.7 / 2.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.2	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.25

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.11
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.17 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:12 +33’	2.10	3.25	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:41 +123’	2.11	3.16	3.17

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gran Pena 0–1–1 Celtiga

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 1	Celtiga	1-1 HT 1-0	Gran Pena
09/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 1	Gran Pena	2-4 HT 1-1	Celtiga

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Boiro	6	4	1	1	11	6	13
2	CD Barco	6	3	2	1	7	5	11
3	Antela FC	6	3	2	1	6	5	11
4	SD Sarriana	6	3	1	2	12	10	10
5	Portonovo	6	3	1	2	8	6	10
6	Alondras	6	3	1	2	10	9	10
7	CD Estradense	6	3	1	2	10	10	10
8	Lalin	6	3	1	2	6	6	10
9	Racing Club Villalbes	6	2	3	1	8	7	9
10	Silva SD	6	2	2	2	8	9	8
11	Pontevedra B	6	2	1	3	9	7	7
12	Gran Pena	6	2	1	3	9	11	7
13	Celtiga	6	1	3	2	5	6	6
13	Somozas	6	1	3	2	5	6	6
15	Montaneros	6	2	0	4	10	12	6
16	Atletico Arteixo	6	1	3	2	8	10	6
17	CD Arenteiro	6	1	1	4	7	10	4
18	Viveiro CF	6	1	1	4	2	6	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gran Pena	Celtiga
Atletico Arteixo	3-2 W	2-3 L
CF Noia	5-1 W	0-3 L
Racing Club Villalbes	4-1 W	2-3 L
Alondras	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Gran Pena (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gran Pena

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Montaneros Spain Tercera Group 1	1-2	1-3	10	3	L
04/10	Atletico Arteixo Spain Tercera Group 1	0-1	3-2	3	7	W
26/09	SD Sarriana Spain Tercera Group 1	0-2	2-3	3	6	L
20/09	Antela FC Spain Tercera Group 1	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
13/09	Pontevedra B Spain Tercera Group 1	2-0	2-1	2	8	W
06/09	Lalin Spain Tercera Group 1	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
10/05	CF Noia Spain Tercera Group 1	3-1	5-1	7	1	W
03/05	Racing Club Villalbes Spain Tercera Group 1	3-0	4-1	4	4	W
26/04	UD Barbadas Spain Tercera Group 1	–	4-0	–	–	W
19/04	Alondras Spain Tercera Group 1	0-0	0-2	1	5	L

Celtiga

LLLLDLLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Alondras Spain Tercera Group 1	–	0-0	–	–	D
04/10	Viveiro CF Spain Tercera Group 1	–	0-0	–	–	D
27/09	CD Estradense Spain Tercera Group 1	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
19/09	Racing Club Villalbes Spain Tercera Group 1	–	2-3	–	–	L
12/09	CD Boiro Spain Tercera Group 1	0-1	0-2	1	1	L
06/09	Silva SD Spain Tercera Group 1	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
10/05	Arosa Spain Tercera Group 1	1-0	2-3	4	6	L
01/05	Atletico Arteixo Spain Tercera Group 1	–	2-3	–	–	L
25/04	CF Noia Spain Tercera Group 1	–	0-3	–	–	L
19/04	Racing Club Villalbes Spain Tercera Group 1	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gran Pena vs Celtiga?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gran Pena win (43%). Probabilities: Gran Pena 43%, draw 27%, Celtiga 30%.

How many goals are expected in Gran Pena vs Celtiga?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Gran Pena 1.62 · Celtiga 1.33), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Gran Pena vs Celtiga?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.