Football · Spain Tercera Group 1 · 25/10, 17:00

Prediction: CD Boiro vs Gran Pena

Team pages: CD Boiro · Gran Pena

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

CD Boiro1.82

Gran Pena1

1X2

55% 25% 20%

CD Boiro Draw Gran Pena

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Boiro 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWDLWW

Gran Pena 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDLWLL

Head-to-head

CD Boiro 1–1–2 Gran Pena (4 last)

CD Boiro1-1Gran Pena
Gran Pena1-0CD Boiro
CD Boiro2-1Gran Pena
Gran Pena5-1CD Boiro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Boiro 1550 · Gran Pena 1516

	CD Boiro	Draw	Gran Pena
Our model	55%	25%	20%
Market	56%	25%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gran Pena: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Boiro	Gran Pena
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1	2.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	43/29/29%	44/11/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.1	1.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	5.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.60

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Pinn 1.65 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:59 +10’	1.60	3.60	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:17 +43’	1.49	3.89	5.67
21:03 +61’	1.65▲	3.51▼	4.63▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Boiro 1–1–2 Gran Pena

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 1	CD Boiro	1-1	Gran Pena
26/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 1	Gran Pena	1-0 HT 1-0	CD Boiro
10/05/25 Spain Tercera Group 1	CD Boiro	2-1 HT 0-1	Gran Pena
12/01/25 Spain Tercera Group 1	Gran Pena	5-1 HT 3-0	CD Boiro

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Boiro	7	5	1	1	12	6	16
2	SD Sarriana	8	4	2	2	15	12	14
3	CD Lalin	7	4	1	2	7	6	13
4	CD Barco	7	3	3	1	8	6	12
5	Antela FC	7	3	3	1	6	5	12
6	Portonovo	8	3	2	3	9	8	11
7	Silva SD	7	3	2	2	10	10	11
8	Racing Club Villalbes	7	2	4	1	9	8	10
9	Alondras	7	3	1	3	10	10	10
10	Celtiga	8	2	4	2	8	8	10
11	CD Estradense	7	3	1	3	11	12	10
12	Atletico Arteixo	7	2	3	2	11	11	9
13	Montaneros	7	3	0	4	12	13	9
14	Pontevedra B	7	2	1	4	9	8	7
15	Somozas	8	1	4	3	7	9	7
16	Gran Pena	7	2	1	4	10	13	7
17	Viveiro CF	7	1	2	4	3	7	5
18	CD Arenteiro	7	1	1	5	8	13	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Boiro	Gran Pena
Racing Club Villalbes	1-1 D	4-1 W
Celtiga	2-0 W	1-2 L
Montaneros	3-2 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CD Boiro (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Boiro

LWDWWWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Alondras Spain Tercera Group 1	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
11/10	Viveiro CF Spain Tercera Group 1	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
04/10	CD Estradense Spain Tercera Group 1	1-2	2-3	5	7	L
27/09	Racing Club Villalbes Spain Tercera Group 1	–	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Silva SD Spain Tercera Group 1	–	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Celtiga Spain Tercera Group 1	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
06/09	Montaneros Spain Tercera Group 1	2-1	3-2	4	4	W
10/05	Somozas Spain Tercera Group 1	–	2-2	–	–	D
03/05	Montaneros Spain Tercera Group 1	1-0	3-1	7	5	W
26/04	Arosa Spain Tercera Group 1	0-1	0-1	2	6	L

Gran Pena

WWWLWDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Celtiga Spain Tercera Group 1	0-2	1-2	5	5	L
11/10	Montaneros Spain Tercera Group 1	1-2	1-3	10	3	L
04/10	Atletico Arteixo Spain Tercera Group 1	0-1	3-2	3	7	W
26/09	SD Sarriana Spain Tercera Group 1	0-2	2-3	3	6	L
20/09	Antela FC Spain Tercera Group 1	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
13/09	Pontevedra B Spain Tercera Group 1	2-0	2-1	2	8	W
06/09	Lalin Spain Tercera Group 1	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
10/05	CF Noia Spain Tercera Group 1	3-1	5-1	7	1	W
03/05	Racing Club Villalbes Spain Tercera Group 1	3-0	4-1	4	4	W
26/04	UD Barbadas Spain Tercera Group 1	–	4-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Boiro vs Gran Pena?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Boiro win (55%). Probabilities: CD Boiro 55%, draw 25%, Gran Pena 20%.

How many goals are expected in CD Boiro vs Gran Pena?

The model expects 2.82 goals (CD Boiro 1.82 · Gran Pena 1), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Boiro vs Gran Pena?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.