Football · Spain Tercera Group 1 · 18/10, 16:15

Prediction: Alondras vs CD Boiro

Team pages: Alondras · CD Boiro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Alondras1.38

CD Boiro1.38

1X2

36% 28% 36%

Alondras Draw CD Boiro

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Alondras 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWWWLD

CD Boiro 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWWDLW

Head-to-head

Alondras 2–3–1 CD Boiro (6 last)

CD Boiro1-0Alondras
Alondras2-2CD Boiro
Alondras1-1CD Boiro
CD Boiro0-0Alondras
CD Boiro1-3Alondras
Alondras3-1CD Boiro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alondras 1500 · CD Boiro 1561

	Alondras	Draw	CD Boiro
Our model	36%	28%	36%
Market	36%	28%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Boiro (rating 1500 vs 1561).
H2H favours Alondras: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alondras	CD Boiro
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	2.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/33/17%	50/17/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5	2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.20

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.50▲	Pinn 2.71 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.63 → 2.50▼	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:16 +7’	2.35	3.20	2.63
21:30 +2’	2.50▲	3.20	2.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:42 +42’	2.71	2.98	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alondras 2–3–1 CD Boiro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 1	CD Boiro	1-0 HT 1-0	Alondras
09/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 1	Alondras	2-2 HT 0-2	CD Boiro
02/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 1	Alondras	1-1 HT 0-0	CD Boiro
22/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 1	CD Boiro	0-0 HT 0-0	Alondras
17/03/19 Spain Tercera Group 1	CD Boiro	1-3	Alondras
21/10/18 Spain Tercera Group 1	Alondras	3-1 HT 2-0	CD Boiro

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Boiro	6	4	1	1	11	6	13
2	CD Barco	6	3	2	1	7	5	11
3	Antela FC	6	3	2	1	6	5	11
4	SD Sarriana	6	3	1	2	12	10	10
5	Portonovo	6	3	1	2	8	6	10
6	Alondras	6	3	1	2	10	9	10
7	CD Estradense	6	3	1	2	10	10	10
8	Lalin	6	3	1	2	6	6	10
9	Racing Club Villalbes	6	2	3	1	8	7	9
10	Silva SD	6	2	2	2	8	9	8
11	Pontevedra B	6	2	1	3	9	7	7
12	Gran Pena	6	2	1	3	9	11	7
13	Celtiga	6	1	3	2	5	6	6
13	Somozas	6	1	3	2	5	6	6
15	Montaneros	6	2	0	4	10	12	6
16	Atletico Arteixo	6	1	3	2	8	10	6
17	CD Arenteiro	6	1	1	4	7	10	4
18	Viveiro CF	6	1	1	4	2	6	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alondras	CD Boiro
Celtiga	0-0 D	2-0 W
Montaneros	0-1 L	3-2 W
Atletico Arteixo	4-2 W	6-0 W
Viveiro CF	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: CD Boiro (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alondras

WLLWLWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Celtiga Spain Tercera Group 1	–	0-0	–	–	D
03/10	Montaneros Spain Tercera Group 1	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
26/09	Atletico Arteixo Spain Tercera Group 1	3-1	4-2	4	4	W
20/09	SD Sarriana Spain Tercera Group 1	–	2-0	–	–	W
13/09	Antela FC Spain Tercera Group 1	–	2-0	–	–	W
05/09	Pontevedra B Spain Tercera Group 1	2-0	2-6	4	4	L
10/05	UD Barbadas Spain Tercera Group 1	–	2-0	–	–	W
03/05	Viveiro CF Spain Tercera Group 1	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
26/04	Lugo B Spain Tercera Group 1	0-2	0-4	8	2	L
19/04	Gran Pena Spain Tercera Group 1	0-0	2-0	6	5	W

CD Boiro

WLWDWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Viveiro CF Spain Tercera Group 1	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
04/10	CD Estradense Spain Tercera Group 1	1-2	2-3	5	7	L
27/09	Racing Club Villalbes Spain Tercera Group 1	–	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Silva SD Spain Tercera Group 1	–	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Celtiga Spain Tercera Group 1	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
06/09	Montaneros Spain Tercera Group 1	2-1	3-2	4	4	W
10/05	Somozas Spain Tercera Group 1	–	2-2	–	–	D
03/05	Montaneros Spain Tercera Group 1	1-0	3-1	7	5	W
26/04	Arosa Spain Tercera Group 1	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
19/04	Atletico Arteixo Spain Tercera Group 1	–	6-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alondras vs CD Boiro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alondras win (36%). Probabilities: Alondras 36%, draw 28%, CD Boiro 36%.

How many goals are expected in Alondras vs CD Boiro?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Alondras 1.38 · CD Boiro 1.38), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Alondras vs CD Boiro?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.