Football · England Development League 2 · 01/09, 20:00
Prediction: Colchester U21 vs Barnsley U21
Team pages: Colchester U21 · Barnsley U21
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.84Total
Colchester U211.8
Barnsley U212.03
1X2
Colchester U21
Draw
Barnsley U21
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Colchester U21
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Barnsley U21
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Colchester U21
1–1–2
Barnsley U21
(4 last)
- Barnsley U214-0Colchester U21
- Colchester U211-3Barnsley U21
- Colchester U213-2Barnsley U21
- Colchester U211-1Barnsley U21
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Colchester U21 1438 · Barnsley U21 1515
| Colchester U21 | Draw | Barnsley U21 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 23% | 43% |
| Market | 34% | 22% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.84 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barnsley U21 (rating 1438 vs 1515).
- H2H favours Barnsley U21: 2-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Colchester U21 | Barnsley U21 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 3.2 | 1.8 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.7 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/33/67% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 6 | 1.7 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.2 | 3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Colchester U21 1–1–2 Barnsley U21
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/26 England Development League 2 | Barnsley U21 | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Colchester U21 |
| 09/08/24 England Development League 2 | Colchester U21 | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Barnsley U21 |
| 21/08/23 England Development League 2 | Colchester U21 | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Barnsley U21 |
| 04/04/23 England Development League 2 | Colchester U21 | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Barnsley U21 |
Standings · England Development League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton U21 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Peterborough U21 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Barnsley U21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Cardiff U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | Huddersfield U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Sheff Utd U21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Colchester U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| 8 | Fleetwood Town U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 9 | Bristol City U21 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 10 | Hull U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 11 | Sheffield Wed U21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | Charlton U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 13 | QPR U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 14 | Wigan U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| 15 | Coventry U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | Millwall U21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 | Swansea U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Colchester U21 | Barnsley U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton U21 | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Cardiff U21 | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Swansea U21 | 0-5 L | 3-2 W |
| Sheff Utd U21 | 2-4 L | 2-2 D |
| Crewe U21 | 0-2 L | 2-5 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 3 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Barnsley U21 (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Colchester U21
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Bolton U21 England Development League 2 |
0-2 | 0-7 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 14/08 | Fleetwood Town U21 England Development League 2 |
– | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 20/04 | Bristol City U21 England Development League 2 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 17/04 | Charlton U21 England Development League 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 14/04 | Cardiff U21 England Development League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 10/04 | Barnsley U21 England Development League 2 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 03/04 | Swansea U21 England Development League 2 |
0-4 | 0-5 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 31/03 | Sheff Utd U21 England Development League 2 |
1-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 23/03 | Crewe U21 England Development League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 23 | 0 | L |
| 20/03 | QPR U21 England Development League 2 |
1-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 7 | L |
Barnsley U21
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Charlton U21 England Development League 2 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 18/08 | Cardiff U21 England Development League 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 14/04 | Sheffield Wed U21 England Development League 2 |
0-3 | 0-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 10/04 | Colchester U21 England Development League 2 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 07/04 | Crewe U21 England Development League 2 |
1-3 | 2-5 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 03/04 | Hull U21 England Development League 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 30/03 | Swansea U21 England Development League 2 |
1-2 | 3-2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 27/03 | Sheff Utd U21 England Development League 2 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 16/03 | Bournemouth U21 England Development League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 10/03 | Wigan U21 England Development League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Colchester U21 vs Barnsley U21?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Barnsley U21 win (43%). Probabilities: Colchester U21 34%, draw 22%, Barnsley U21 43%.
How many goals are expected in Colchester U21 vs Barnsley U21?
The model expects 3.84 goals (Colchester U21 1.8 · Barnsley U21 2.03), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Colchester U21 vs Barnsley U21?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.