Football · England Development League 2 · 01/09, 20:00

Prediction: Cardiff U21 vs Sheffield Wed U21

Team pages: Cardiff U21 · Sheffield Wed U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

Cardiff U211.91

Sheffield Wed U211.45

1X2

48% 23% 29%

Cardiff U21 Draw Sheffield Wed U21

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Cardiff U21 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWLWDLLW

Sheffield Wed U21 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLDWLWWD

Head-to-head

Cardiff U21 1–2–1 Sheffield Wed U21 (4 last)

Sheffield Wed U211-2Cardiff U21
Cardiff U210-1Sheffield Wed U21
Cardiff U213-3Sheffield Wed U21
Cardiff U211-1Sheffield Wed U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cardiff U21 1525 · Sheffield Wed U21 1518

	Cardiff U21	Draw	Sheffield Wed U21
Our model	47%	24%	28%
Market	49%	21%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cardiff U21	Sheffield Wed U21
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	1.7 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.83

X4.20

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.24
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.36 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:09 +24’	1.83	4.20	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:31 +1’	1.79	4.24	3.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Cardiff U21 1–2–1 Sheffield Wed U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/04/26 England Development League 2	Sheffield Wed U21	1-2 HT 0-1	Cardiff U21
14/08/24 England Development League 2	Cardiff U21	0-1 HT 0-1	Sheffield Wed U21
22/08/23 England Development League 2	Cardiff U21	3-3 HT 2-2	Sheffield Wed U21
04/04/23 England Development League 2	Cardiff U21	1-1 HT 1-1	Sheffield Wed U21

Standings · England Development League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bolton U21	2	2	0	0	8	0	6
2	Peterborough U21	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
3	Barnsley U21	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
4	Cardiff U21	2	1	0	1	6	4	3
5	Huddersfield U21	1	1	0	0	4	2	3
6	Sheff Utd U21	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
7	Colchester U21	2	1	0	1	4	7	3
8	Fleetwood Town U21	2	1	0	1	2	5	3
9	Bristol City U21	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
10	Hull U21	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
11	Sheffield Wed U21	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
12	Charlton U21	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
13	QPR U21	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
14	Wigan U21	2	0	1	1	4	7	1
15	Coventry U21	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
16	Millwall U21	1	0	0	1	2	4	0
17	Swansea U21	2	0	0	2	2	5	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cardiff U21	Sheffield Wed U21
Wigan U21	5-2 W	2-0 W
Barnsley U21	1-2 L	4-0 W
Brentford U21	0-4 L	1-2 L
Fleetwood Town U21	2-1 W	3-3 D
Swansea U21	1-1 D	1-5 L
Millwall U21	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cardiff U21 (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cardiff U21

DWDWLWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Wigan U21 England Development League 2	3-1	5-2	4	2	W
18/08	Barnsley U21 England Development League 2	1-1	1-2	7	1	L
20/04	Hull U21 England Development League 2	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
14/04	Colchester U21 England Development League 2	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
10/04	Sheffield Wed U21 England Development League 2	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
06/04	Brentford U21 England Development League 2	0-2	0-4	6	0	L
17/03	Fleetwood Town U21 England Development League 2	1-1	2-1	6	2	W
13/03	Swansea U21 England Development League 2	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
10/03	Charlton U21 England Development League 2	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
03/03	Millwall U21 England Development League 2	1-1	1-1	4	5	D

Sheffield Wed U21

WDLLDWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Bristol City U21 England Development League 2	0-0	1-1	5	7	D
20/04	Crewe U21 England Development League 2	3-0	3-0	2	1	W
14/04	Barnsley U21 England Development League 2	3-0	4-0	2	4	W
10/04	Cardiff U21 England Development League 2	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
07/04	Wigan U21 England Development League 2	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
31/03	Millwall U21 England Development League 2	1-1	1-1	3	1	D
20/03	Brentford U21 England Development League 2	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
16/03	Swansea U21 England Development League 2	0-1	1-5	6	6	L
10/03	Fleetwood Town U21 England Development League 2	1-0	3-3	3	2	D
06/03	Peterborough U21 England Development League 2	0-1	2-1	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cardiff U21 vs Sheffield Wed U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cardiff U21 win (48%). Probabilities: Cardiff U21 48%, draw 23%, Sheffield Wed U21 29%.

How many goals are expected in Cardiff U21 vs Sheffield Wed U21?

The model expects 3.36 goals (Cardiff U21 1.91 · Sheffield Wed U21 1.45), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cardiff U21 vs Sheffield Wed U21?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.