Football · Spain Tercera Group 14 · 01/11, 12:00

Prediction: Villanovense vs CF Jaraiz

Team pages: Villanovense · CF Jaraiz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.45Total

Villanovense1.67

CF Jaraiz0.78

1X2

58% 25% 17%

Villanovense Draw CF Jaraiz

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Villanovense 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWDWWW

CF Jaraiz 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWDLLWLDLW

Head-to-head

Villanovense 0–1–1 CF Jaraiz (2 last)

Villanovense0-1CF Jaraiz
CF Jaraiz1-1Villanovense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Villanovense 1558 · CF Jaraiz 1493

	Villanovense	Draw	CF Jaraiz
Our model	57%	26%	16%
Market	58%	24%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Villanovense (rating 1558 vs 1493).
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Villanovense	CF Jaraiz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.6	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/25/25%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.8	3.3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	5.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.55

X3.70

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.55▲	Pinn 1.58 ★
X	3.75 → 3.70▼	Bet365 3.70
2	5.50 → 5.25▼	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
17:41 +26’	1.50	3.75	5.50
00:57 +9’	1.55▲	3.70▼	5.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:22 +45’	1.43	4.09	6.56
20:09 +98’	1.58▲	3.68▼	5.15▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Villanovense 0–1–1 CF Jaraiz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Spain Tercera Group 14	Villanovense	0-1 HT 0-1	CF Jaraiz
11/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 14	CF Jaraiz	1-1	Villanovense

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 14

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Azuaga	8	7	0	1	19	7	21
2	AD Llerenense	8	6	2	0	10	2	20
3	Moralo	8	5	3	0	15	8	18
4	Villanovense	8	5	1	2	14	5	16
5	Castuera	8	4	2	2	15	6	14
6	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada	8	3	2	3	12	10	11
7	Jerez	8	3	2	3	10	12	11
8	CD Gevora	8	3	2	3	12	13	11
9	CD Cabeza del Buey	8	2	4	2	11	10	10
10	SP Villafranca	8	3	1	4	12	13	10
11	CD Zafra	8	2	3	3	10	10	9
12	CD Quintana	8	2	3	3	7	8	9
13	UD Montijo	8	2	2	4	7	11	8
14	Santa Amalia	8	1	5	2	9	11	8
15	CF Jaraiz	8	2	2	4	12	12	8
16	Plasencia	8	1	4	3	7	12	7
17	At. Pueblonuevo	8	0	3	5	9	23	3
18	CD Guadiana	8	0	1	7	3	21	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Villanovense	CF Jaraiz
CD Guadiana	2-0 W	4-0 W
CD Azuaga	2-0 W	2-3 L
CD Cabeza del Buey	1-1 D	0-0 D
UD Montijo	2-0 W	0-2 L
SP Villafranca	1-0 W	2-1 W
AD Llerenense	0-1 L	0-1 L
Moralo	1-2 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Villanovense (2 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Villanovense

WLLLWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Jerez Spain Tercera Group 14	2-0	5-1	6	5	W
18/10	CD Guadiana Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/10	CD Azuaga Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
04/10	CD Cabeza del Buey Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	UD Montijo Spain Tercera Group 14	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
20/09	SP Villafranca Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-0	–	–	W
13/09	AD Llerenense Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-1	–	–	L
06/09	Moralo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-2	–	–	L
10/05	CF Jaraiz Spain Tercera Group 14	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
03/05	CP Montehermoso Spain Tercera Group 14	–	3-0	–	–	W

CF Jaraiz

WWDLLWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	CD Guadiana Spain Tercera Group 14	–	4-0	–	–	W
18/10	CD Azuaga Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-3	–	–	L
11/10	CD Cabeza del Buey Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
04/10	UD Montijo Spain Tercera Group 14	0-1	0-2	7	6	L
27/09	SP Villafranca Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-1	–	–	W
19/09	AD Llerenense Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	Moralo Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-3	–	–	L
06/09	At. Pueblonuevo Spain Tercera Group 14	2-2	2-2	8	5	D
17/05	CD Badajoz Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
10/05	Villanovense Spain Tercera Group 14	1-0	1-0	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Villanovense vs CF Jaraiz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Villanovense win (58%). Probabilities: Villanovense 58%, draw 25%, CF Jaraiz 17%.

How many goals are expected in Villanovense vs CF Jaraiz?

The model expects 2.45 goals (Villanovense 1.67 · CF Jaraiz 0.78), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Villanovense vs CF Jaraiz?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.