Football · Spain Tercera Group 14 · 01/11, 12:30

Prediction: Jerez vs At. Pueblonuevo

Team pages: Jerez · At. Pueblonuevo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.49Total

Jerez2.28

At. Pueblonuevo1.2

1X2

60% 22% 18%

Jerez Draw At. Pueblonuevo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Jerez 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWLLWWDL

At. Pueblonuevo 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DWDLDLDLLL

Head-to-head

Jerez 4–1–1 At. Pueblonuevo (6 last)

At. Pueblonuevo3-2Jerez
Jerez5-1At. Pueblonuevo
At. Pueblonuevo0-1Jerez
Jerez3-0At. Pueblonuevo
At. Pueblonuevo0-0Jerez
Jerez3-0At. Pueblonuevo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jerez 1496 · At. Pueblonuevo 1438

	Jerez	Draw	At. Pueblonuevo
Our model	61%	21%	18%
Market	60%	23%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jerez (rating 1496 vs 1438).
H2H favours Jerez: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jerez	At. Pueblonuevo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	1.1 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1	1.5 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.5	3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.80

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 03:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.22▼	Pinn 1.35 ★
X	3.80 → 5.25▲	Bet365 5.25
2	5.25 → 9.50▲	Bet365 9.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:06 +7’	1.50	3.80	5.25
21:29 +21’	1.30▼	4.75▲	7.00▲
02:50 +15’	1.22▼	5.25▲	9.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:22 +51’	1.35	4.66	7.10
06:05 +3’	1.35▲	4.60▼	7.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Jerez 4–1–1 At. Pueblonuevo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 14	At. Pueblonuevo	3-2	Jerez
19/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 14	Jerez	5-1 HT 3-1	At. Pueblonuevo
23/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 14	At. Pueblonuevo	0-1	Jerez
13/10/24 Spain Tercera Group 14	Jerez	3-0 HT 1-0	At. Pueblonuevo
07/04/24 Spain Tercera Group 14	At. Pueblonuevo	0-0	Jerez
19/11/23 Spain Tercera Group 14	Jerez	3-0 HT 1-0	At. Pueblonuevo

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 14

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Azuaga	8	7	0	1	19	7	21
2	AD Llerenense	8	6	2	0	10	2	20
3	Moralo	8	5	3	0	15	8	18
4	Villanovense	8	5	1	2	14	5	16
5	Castuera	8	4	2	2	15	6	14
6	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada	8	3	2	3	12	10	11
7	Jerez	8	3	2	3	10	12	11
8	CD Gevora	8	3	2	3	12	13	11
9	CD Cabeza del Buey	8	2	4	2	11	10	10
10	SP Villafranca	8	3	1	4	12	13	10
11	CD Zafra	8	2	3	3	10	10	9
12	CD Quintana	8	2	3	3	7	8	9
13	UD Montijo	8	2	2	4	7	11	8
14	Santa Amalia	8	1	5	2	9	11	8
15	CF Jaraiz	8	2	2	4	12	12	8
16	Plasencia	8	1	4	3	7	12	7
17	At. Pueblonuevo	8	0	3	5	9	23	3
18	CD Guadiana	8	0	1	7	3	21	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jerez	At. Pueblonuevo
Plasencia	0-0 D	3-4 L
CD Quintana	1-0 W	1-4 L
CD Azuaga	0-2 L	1-0 W
Castuera	1-2 L	0-5 L
E.F. Puebla de la Calzada	2-2 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Jerez (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jerez

LWDWLLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Villanovense Spain Tercera Group 14	0-2	1-5	2	5	L
21/10	Plasencia Spain Tercera Group 14	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
17/10	CD Quintana Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-0	–	–	W
11/10	CD Guadiana Spain Tercera Group 14	–	4-1	–	–	W
27/09	CD Azuaga Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-2	–	–	L
20/09	Castuera Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-2	–	–	L
13/09	CD Cabeza del Buey Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-0	–	–	W
06/09	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada Spain Tercera Group 14	–	2-2	–	–	D
10/05	CP Montehermoso Spain Tercera Group 14	–	5-1	–	–	W
03/05	SP Villafranca Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-2	–	–	L

At. Pueblonuevo

DWDLDLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	CD Quintana Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-4	–	–	L
18/10	Plasencia Spain Tercera Group 14	–	3-4	–	–	L
11/10	Castuera Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-5	–	–	L
03/10	E.F. Puebla de la Calzada Spain Tercera Group 14	–	0-0	–	–	D
27/09	CD Gevora Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-3	–	–	L
20/09	Santa Amalia Spain Tercera Group 14	1-1	1-1	7	5	D
13/09	CD Zafra Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-4	–	–	L
06/09	CF Jaraiz Spain Tercera Group 14	2-2	2-2	2	5	D
10/05	CD Azuaga Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/05	CD Gevora Spain Tercera Group 14	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jerez vs At. Pueblonuevo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jerez win (60%). Probabilities: Jerez 60%, draw 22%, At. Pueblonuevo 18%.

How many goals are expected in Jerez vs At. Pueblonuevo?

The model expects 3.49 goals (Jerez 2.28 · At. Pueblonuevo 1.2), with a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Jerez vs At. Pueblonuevo?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.