Prediction: USD Castellanzese vs ASD Varesina
Team pages: USD Castellanzese · ASD Varesina
- USD Castellanzese1-2ASD Varesina
- ASD Varesina2-2USD Castellanzese
- USD Castellanzese2-1ASD Varesina
- ASD Varesina1-1USD Castellanzese
- USD Castellanzese0-0ASD Varesina
- ASD Varesina2-0USD Castellanzese
| USD Castellanzese | Draw | ASD Varesina | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Market | 58% | 24% | 18% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours USD Castellanzese (rating 1533 vs 1486).
- H2H favours ASD Varesina: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| USD Castellanzese | ASD Varesina | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.9 | 1.3 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/50/17% | 0/83/17% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5.7 | 2 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0 | 4.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · USD Castellanzese 1–3–2 ASD Varesina
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Italy Serie D Play-Offs | USD Castellanzese | 1-2 HT 0-0 | ASD Varesina |
| 18/03/26 Italy Serie D | ASD Varesina | 2-2 HT 1-1 | USD Castellanzese |
| 02/11/25 Italy Serie D | USD Castellanzese | 2-1 HT 0-1 | ASD Varesina |
| 06/04/25 Italy Serie D | ASD Varesina | 1-1 HT 0-1 | USD Castellanzese |
| 24/11/24 Italy Serie D | USD Castellanzese | 0-0 HT 0-0 | ASD Varesina |
| 13/01/24 Italy Serie D | ASD Varesina | 2-0 HT 0-0 | USD Castellanzese |
Standings · Italy Serie D
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reggina | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 3 | 19 |
| 2 | Sambiase | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 17 |
| 3 | Calcio Avola 1949 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Vibonese | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Igea Virtus | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 15 | 14 |
| 6 | ASD Licata | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 14 |
| 7 | Milazzo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 13 |
| 8 | ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 12 |
| 9 | Nissa FC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 9 |
| 10 | SSD Athletic Club Palermo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| 11 | Vigor Lamezia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 8 |
| 12 | Siracusa | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 7 |
| 13 | Modica | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 7 |
| 14 | ASD CastrumFavara | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 7 |
| 15 | Città di Gela | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 16 | Trapani | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 4 |
| 17 | ASD Ragusa | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 3 |
| 18 | Enna Calcio | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 20 | 1 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | USD Castellanzese | ASD Varesina |
|---|---|---|
| Correggese | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| A.C.D. Sant'Angelo | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 0 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: USD Castellanzese (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
USD Castellanzese
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Correggese Italy Serie D |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/10 | Arconatese Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 04/10 | A.C.D. Sant'Angelo Italy Serie D |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/09 | A.C. Crema 1908 Italy Serie D |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 20/09 | Solbiatese Calcio 1911 Italy Serie D |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 16/09 | Oltrepò Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | Lentigione Italy Serie D |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 06/09 | Pontedera Italy Serie D |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 26/04 | AC Milan U23 Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
ASD Varesina
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Pro Sesto Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 11/10 | Pavia Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 04/10 | Pro Patria Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 27/09 | USD Casatese Italy Serie D |
– | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 20/09 | Pistoiese Italy Serie D |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 16/09 | Correggese Italy Serie D |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | A.C.D. Sant'Angelo Italy Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | Cittadella Vis Modena Italy Serie D |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | ASD Caldiero Terme Italy Serie D |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 26/04 | US Breno Italy Serie D |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in USD Castellanzese vs ASD Varesina?
According to our model, the most likely result is a USD Castellanzese win (58%). Probabilities: USD Castellanzese 58%, draw 24%, ASD Varesina 18%.
How many goals are expected in USD Castellanzese vs ASD Varesina?
The model expects 2.71 goals (USD Castellanzese 1.81 · ASD Varesina 0.9), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in USD Castellanzese vs ASD Varesina?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.