Football · Italy Serie D · 25/10, 14:30

Prediction: Lentigione vs A.C. Crema 1908

Team pages: Lentigione · A.C. Crema 1908

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

Lentigione1.98

A.C. Crema 19080.79

1X2

65% 22% 13%

Lentigione Draw A.C. Crema 1908

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Lentigione 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLDWWD

A.C. Crema 1908 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLDLLLLWDW

Head-to-head

Lentigione 5–1–0 A.C. Crema 1908 (6 last)

A.C. Crema 19080-1Lentigione
Lentigione3-0A.C. Crema 1908
Lentigione2-1A.C. Crema 1908
Lentigione2-1A.C. Crema 1908
A.C. Crema 19081-1Lentigione
Lentigione2-1A.C. Crema 1908

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lentigione 1542 · A.C. Crema 1908 1439

	Lentigione	Draw	A.C. Crema 1908
Our model	64%	23%	13%
Market	65%	21%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lentigione (rating 1542 vs 1439).
H2H favours Lentigione: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lentigione	A.C. Crema 1908
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.1	0.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.2 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	17/33/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 5.8	3.2 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.38

X4.20

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.38	Bet365 1.38
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
07:47 +12’	1.38	4.20	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lentigione 5–1–0 A.C. Crema 1908

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
04/01/26 Italy Serie D	A.C. Crema 1908	0-1	Lentigione
07/09/25 Italy Serie D	Lentigione	3-0 HT 0-0	A.C. Crema 1908
01/09/24 Italy Serie D Cup	Lentigione	2-1 HT 0-1	A.C. Crema 1908
15/01/23 Italy Serie D	Lentigione	2-1 HT 1-0	A.C. Crema 1908
11/09/22 Italy Serie D	A.C. Crema 1908	1-1 HT 1-1	Lentigione
02/02/20 Italy Serie D	Lentigione	2-1	A.C. Crema 1908

Standings · Italy Serie D

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	8	6	1	1	18	3	19
2	Sambiase	8	5	2	1	12	6	17
3	Calcio Avola 1949	8	5	1	2	12	11	16
4	Vibonese	8	4	3	1	17	7	15
5	Igea Virtus	8	4	2	2	19	15	14
6	ASD Licata	7	4	2	1	10	9	14
7	Milazzo	8	4	1	3	9	10	13
8	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	8	3	3	2	14	8	12
9	Nissa FC	8	2	3	3	11	12	9
10	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	7	2	2	3	10	10	8
11	Vigor Lamezia	8	2	2	4	10	16	8
12	Siracusa	7	4	2	1	11	5	7
13	Modica	7	2	1	4	7	10	7
14	ASD CastrumFavara	8	2	1	5	8	10	7
15	Città di Gela	8	1	4	3	6	8	6
16	Trapani	8	3	0	5	4	11	4
17	ASD Ragusa	8	0	3	5	6	13	3
18	Enna Calcio	8	0	1	7	0	20	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lentigione	A.C. Crema 1908
Pontedera	2-0 W	4-1 W
Citta di Varese	1-1 D	3-2 W
Tropical Coriano	2-1 W	0-0 D
USD Castellanzese	1-0 W	0-4 L
Pro Sesto	3-2 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Lentigione (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lentigione

WDWWWLDWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Solbiatese Calcio 1911 Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/10	Pontedera Italy Serie D	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
04/10	Oltrepò Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
27/09	Citta di Varese Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
20/09	Cittadella Vis Modena Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
16/09	Tropical Coriano Italy Serie D	0-1	2-1	6	8	W
12/09	USD Castellanzese Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
06/09	Pro Sesto Italy Serie D	2-1	3-2	6	5	W
03/05	A.C.D. Sant'Angelo Italy Serie D	2-1	2-2	1	3	D
26/04	CS Trevigliese Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W

A.C. Crema 1908

DLDLLLLWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Pontedera Italy Serie D	–	4-1	–	–	W
11/10	Tropical Coriano Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
04/10	Citta di Varese Italy Serie D	–	3-2	–	–	W
27/09	USD Castellanzese Italy Serie D	0-3	0-4	9	1	L
20/09	Pro Sesto Italy Serie D	0-1	0-3	11	2	L
16/09	Pro Patria Italy Serie D	0-2	0-2	3	4	L
13/09	Pistoiese Italy Serie D	–	1-3	–	–	L
06/09	Pavia Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
03/05	Piacenza Italy Serie D	1-0	1-3	2	4	L
26/04	Correggese Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lentigione vs A.C. Crema 1908?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lentigione win (65%). Probabilities: Lentigione 65%, draw 22%, A.C. Crema 1908 13%.

How many goals are expected in Lentigione vs A.C. Crema 1908?

The model expects 2.77 goals (Lentigione 1.98 · A.C. Crema 1908 0.79), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lentigione vs A.C. Crema 1908?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.