Football · Italy Serie D · 25/10, 14:30

Prediction: Pavia vs USD Casatese

Team pages: Pavia · USD Casatese

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Pavia1.26

USD Casatese1.31

1X2

34% 29% 37%

Pavia Draw USD Casatese

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Pavia 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDDDDLDL

USD Casatese 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWDLWWLWL

Head-to-head

Pavia 0–1–1 USD Casatese (2 last)

USD Casatese1-0Pavia
Pavia3-3USD Casatese

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pavia 1467 · USD Casatese 1532

	Pavia	Draw	USD Casatese
Our model	34%	29%	37%
Market	34%	29%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours USD Casatese (rating 1467 vs 1532).
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pavia	USD Casatese
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.9	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/57/43%	0/83/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 4.4	1.7 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.10

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
04:44 +27’	2.60	3.10	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pavia 0–1–1 USD Casatese

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Italy Serie D	USD Casatese	1-0 HT 1-0	Pavia
07/12/25 Italy Serie D	Pavia	3-3	USD Casatese

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	8	6	1	1	18	3	19
2	Sambiase	8	5	2	1	12	6	17
3	Calcio Avola 1949	8	5	1	2	12	11	16
4	Vibonese	8	4	3	1	17	7	15
5	Igea Virtus	8	4	2	2	19	15	14
6	ASD Licata	7	4	2	1	10	9	14
7	Milazzo	8	4	1	3	9	10	13
8	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	8	3	3	2	14	8	12
9	Nissa FC	8	2	3	3	11	12	9
10	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	7	2	2	3	10	10	8
11	Vigor Lamezia	8	2	2	4	10	16	8
12	Siracusa	7	4	2	1	11	5	7
13	Modica	7	2	1	4	7	10	7
14	ASD CastrumFavara	8	2	1	5	8	10	7
15	Città di Gela	8	1	4	3	6	8	6
16	Trapani	8	3	0	5	4	11	4
17	ASD Ragusa	8	0	3	5	6	13	3
18	Enna Calcio	8	0	1	7	0	20	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pavia	USD Casatese
Pistoiese	0-1 L	0-3 L
ASD Varesina	2-2 D	4-2 W
Correggese	1-2 L	3-1 W
Arconatese	1-1 D	2-1 W
A.C.D. Sant'Angelo	0-0 D	1-2 L
Solbiatese Calcio 1911	0-0 D	0-0 D
AC Chievo Verona	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: USD Casatese (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pavia

LWLDDDDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Pistoiese Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
11/10	ASD Varesina Italy Serie D	1-1	2-2	6	5	D
04/10	Correggese Italy Serie D	0-2	1-2	6	4	L
27/09	Arconatese Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
20/09	A.C.D. Sant'Angelo Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D
16/09	Solbiatese Calcio 1911 Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
06/09	A.C. Crema 1908 Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
03/05	AC Chievo Verona Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
26/04	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo Italy Serie D	–	3-0	–	–	W
19/04	USD Casatese Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	1	2	L

USD Casatese

WDWDLWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Pro Patria Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/10	Cittadella Vis Modena Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	0	6	W
04/10	Pistoiese Italy Serie D	0-2	0-3	6	4	L
27/09	ASD Varesina Italy Serie D	–	4-2	–	–	W
20/09	Correggese Italy Serie D	0-0	3-1	5	4	W
16/09	A.C.D. Sant'Angelo Italy Serie D	1-1	1-2	3	7	L
12/09	Solbiatese Calcio 1911 Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
06/09	Arconatese Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
17/05	AC Chievo Verona Italy Serie D	1-1	2-2	3	6	D
03/05	AC Leon Monza Brianza Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pavia vs USD Casatese?

According to our model, the most likely result is an USD Casatese win (37%). Probabilities: Pavia 34%, draw 29%, USD Casatese 37%.

How many goals are expected in Pavia vs USD Casatese?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Pavia 1.26 · USD Casatese 1.31), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Pavia vs USD Casatese?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.