Football · Spain Tercera Group 11 · 19/09, 16:00

Prediction: Llosetense vs Formentera

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

Llosetense1.23

Formentera1.15

1X2

38% 29% 34%

Llosetense Draw Formentera

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Llosetense 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDDWWDDLWL

Formentera 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDWLWDDW

Head-to-head

Llosetense 1–2–3 Formentera (6 last)

Llosetense2-2Formentera
Formentera1-1Llosetense
Formentera1-0Llosetense
Llosetense1-0Formentera
Formentera2-0Llosetense
Llosetense1-2Formentera

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Llosetense 1499 · Formentera 1553

	Llosetense	Draw	Formentera
Our model	37%	30%	33%
Market	38%	28%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Formentera (rating 1499 vs 1553).
H2H favours Formentera: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Llosetense	Formentera
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0	0 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 5.4	– / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	2 / 1

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.25

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:30 +5’	2.35	3.25	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Llosetense 1–2–3 Formentera

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Spain Tercera Group 11	Llosetense	2-2	Formentera
11/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 11	Formentera	1-1	Llosetense
19/01/25 Spain Tercera Group 11	Formentera	1-0	Llosetense
07/09/24 Spain Tercera Group 11	Llosetense	1-0 HT 0-0	Formentera
21/02/21 Spain Tercera Group 11	Formentera	2-0	Llosetense
15/11/20 Spain Tercera Group 11	Llosetense	1-2 HT 1-1	Formentera

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 11

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alcudia	2	2	0	0	7	1	6
2	PE Sant Jordi	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
3	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
4	Manacor	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
5	CE Constancia	2	1	1	0	4	1	4
6	Formentera	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
7	CD Cardassar	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
8	Mercadal	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
9	Llosetense	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
10	UE Porreres	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
11	CE Andratx	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
12	Santanyi	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
13	Platges de Calvia	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
14	Binissalem	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
15	CD Migjorn	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
16	CE Sineu	2	0	0	2	2	6	0
17	UD Arenal	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
18	Inter Ibiza	2	0	0	2	0	7	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Llosetense	Formentera
Manacor	1-2 L	0-3 L
Mercadal	6-1 W	1-1 D
CD Cardassar	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Llosetense (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Llosetense

LDDWWDDLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	CE Andratx Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
05/09	CE Sineu Spain Tercera Group 11	–	2-0	–	–	W
23/05	Manacor Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-2	–	–	L
17/05	Manacor Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
10/05	Formentera Spain Tercera Group 11	–	2-2	–	–	D
03/05	Inter Ibiza Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/04	Mercadal Spain Tercera Group 11	4-0	6-1	2	2	W
25/04	CE Constancia Spain Tercera Group 11	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
18/04	CD Cardassar Spain Tercera Group 11	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
11/04	Manacor Spain Tercera Group 11	–	0-1	–	–	L

Formentera

WWWDWLWDDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	UE Porreres Spain Tercera Group 11	–	3-1	–	–	W
05/09	Mercadal Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-1	–	–	D
10/05	Llosetense Spain Tercera Group 11	–	2-2	–	–	D
03/05	CD Cardassar Spain Tercera Group 11	–	3-1	–	–	W
26/04	Manacor Spain Tercera Group 11	–	0-3	–	–	L
19/04	Mercadal Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/04	Binissalem Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
04/04	Felanitx Spain Tercera Group 11	–	2-0	–	–	W
29/03	SCR Pena Deportiva Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-0	–	–	W
22/03	SD Portmany Spain Tercera Group 11	–	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Llosetense vs Formentera?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Llosetense win (38%). Probabilities: Llosetense 38%, draw 29%, Formentera 34%.

How many goals are expected in Llosetense vs Formentera?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Llosetense 1.23 · Formentera 1.15), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Llosetense vs Formentera?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.