Football · Spain Tercera Group 11 · 18/09, 19:30

Prediction: Binissalem vs Platges de Calvia

Team pages: Binissalem

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.31Total

Binissalem1.15

Platges de Calvia1.15

1X2

35% 30% 35%

Binissalem Draw Platges de Calvia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Binissalem 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDDLDWLL

Platges de Calvia 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLDWLWLLL

Head-to-head

Binissalem 2–3–1 Platges de Calvia (6 last)

Platges de Calvia0-0Binissalem
Binissalem1-0Platges de Calvia
Platges de Calvia1-1Binissalem
Binissalem0-2Platges de Calvia
Platges de Calvia1-2Binissalem
Binissalem0-0Platges de Calvia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Binissalem 1486 · Platges de Calvia 1478

	Binissalem	Draw	Platges de Calvia
Our model	35%	31%	35%
Market	35%	30%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Binissalem: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Binissalem	Platges de Calvia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/57/29%	57/14/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.9	3.3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.00

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:03 +7’	2.55	3.00	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Binissalem 2–3–1 Platges de Calvia

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 11	Platges de Calvia	0-0 HT 0-0	Binissalem
13/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 11	Binissalem	1-0	Platges de Calvia
15/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 11	Platges de Calvia	1-1 HT 0-1	Binissalem
06/10/24 Spain Tercera Group 11	Binissalem	0-2 HT 0-0	Platges de Calvia
12/05/24 Spain Tercera Group 11	Platges de Calvia	1-2 HT 0-0	Binissalem
20/01/24 Spain Tercera Group 11	Binissalem	0-0 HT 0-0	Platges de Calvia

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 11

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alcudia	2	2	0	0	7	1	6
2	PE Sant Jordi	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
3	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
4	Manacor	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
5	CE Constancia	2	1	1	0	4	1	4
6	Formentera	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
7	CD Cardassar	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
8	Mercadal	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
9	Llosetense	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
10	UE Porreres	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
11	CE Andratx	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
12	Santanyi	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
13	Platges de Calvia	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
14	Binissalem	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
15	CD Migjorn	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
16	CE Sineu	2	0	0	2	2	6	0
17	UD Arenal	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
18	Inter Ibiza	2	0	0	2	0	7	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Binissalem	Platges de Calvia
CD Cardassar	1-3 L	1-3 L
Manacor	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Binissalem

WWLDDLDWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	CD Cardassar Spain Tercera Group 11	1-3	1-3	8	5	L
05/09	Manacor Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-2	–	–	L
10/05	CD Son Cladera Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	2-0	3	6	W
03/05	Alcudia Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-1	–	–	D
25/04	Mallorca B Spain Tercera Group 11	0-2	0-2	8	5	L
19/04	Platges de Calvia Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
12/04	Formentera Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
02/04	Inter Ibiza Spain Tercera Group 11	–	0-3	–	–	L
28/03	Llosetense Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	2-0	0	10	W
22/03	CD Cardassar Spain Tercera Group 11	2-1	4-2	2	9	W

Platges de Calvia

WWLDWLWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Manacor Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-2	–	–	L
06/09	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas Spain Tercera Group 11	0-1	1-2	9	2	L
10/05	CD Cardassar Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-3	–	–	L
03/05	Manacor Spain Tercera Group 11	1-0	4-2	5	7	W
26/04	Mercadal Spain Tercera Group 11	–	0-1	–	–	L
22/04	Felanitx Spain Tercera Group 11	1-0	3-0	7	5	W
19/04	Binissalem Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
05/04	SCR Pena Deportiva Spain Tercera Group 11	0-2	0-4	3	5	L
28/03	SD Portmany Spain Tercera Group 11	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
21/03	Rotlet Molinar Spain Tercera Group 11	2-0	3-1	9	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Binissalem vs Platges de Calvia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Binissalem win (35%). Probabilities: Binissalem 35%, draw 30%, Platges de Calvia 35%.

How many goals are expected in Binissalem vs Platges de Calvia?

The model expects 2.31 goals (Binissalem 1.15 · Platges de Calvia 1.15), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Binissalem vs Platges de Calvia?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.