Football · Spain Tercera Group 11 · 26/09, 18:30
Prediction: CE Constancia vs Alcudia
Team pages: CE Constancia · Alcudia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.19Total
CE Constancia2.05
Alcudia1.14
1X2
CE Constancia
Draw
Alcudia
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
CE Constancia
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Alcudia
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CE Constancia
3–1–2
Alcudia
(6 last)
- CE Constancia5-0Alcudia
- Alcudia1-0CE Constancia
- CE Constancia5-2Alcudia
- Alcudia1-1CE Constancia
- CE Constancia3-2Alcudia
- Alcudia2-0CE Constancia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CE Constancia 1555 · Alcudia 1482
| CE Constancia | Draw | Alcudia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Market | 59% | 21% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CE Constancia (rating 1555 vs 1482).
- H2H favours CE Constancia: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CE Constancia | Alcudia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 0.5 | 1.9 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.1 | 1 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 57/29/14% | 25/0/75% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.4 | 1.8 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.4 | 5.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CE Constancia 3–1–2 Alcudia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 11 | CE Constancia | 5-0 | Alcudia |
| 25/10/25 Spain Tercera Group 11 | Alcudia | 1-0 | CE Constancia |
| 03/05/25 Spain Tercera Group 11 | CE Constancia | 5-2 | Alcudia |
| 21/12/24 Spain Tercera Group 11 | Alcudia | 1-1 | CE Constancia |
| 27/01/24 Spain Tercera Group 11 | CE Constancia | 3-2 | Alcudia |
| 09/09/23 Spain Tercera Group 11 | Alcudia | 2-0 HT 1-0 | CE Constancia |
Standings · Spain Tercera Group 11
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manacor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | PE Sant Jordi | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | CD Cardassar | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Alcudia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | UE Porreres | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Formentera | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| 8 | Santanyi | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 9 | CE Constancia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Mercadal | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Llosetense | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | CE Andratx | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Platges de Calvia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | UD Arenal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 15 | CE Sineu | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| 16 | Binissalem | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 | CD Migjorn | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| 18 | Inter Ibiza | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CE Constancia | Alcudia |
|---|---|---|
| Santanyi | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| UD Arenal | 3-0 W | 2-1 W |
| SCR Pena Deportiva | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Inter Ibiza | 3-0 W | 5-0 W |
| Rotlet Molinar | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Collerense | 4-0 W | 2-4 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: CE Constancia (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CE Constancia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | CD Cardassar Spain Tercera Group 11 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Santanyi Spain Tercera Group 11 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 05/09 | UD Arenal Spain Tercera Group 11 |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | SCR Pena Deportiva Spain Tercera Group 11 |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 10/05 | Inter Ibiza Spain Tercera Group 11 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | Rotlet Molinar Spain Tercera Group 11 |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Llosetense Spain Tercera Group 11 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | Collerense Spain Tercera Group 11 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | CD Cardassar Spain Tercera Group 11 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 01/04 | Santanyi Spain Tercera Group 11 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
Alcudia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Santanyi Spain Tercera Group 11 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | UD Arenal Spain Tercera Group 11 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Inter Ibiza Spain Tercera Group 11 |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Mercadal Spain Tercera Group 11 |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Binissalem Spain Tercera Group 11 |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 26/04 | Felanitx Spain Tercera Group 11 |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | SCR Pena Deportiva Spain Tercera Group 11 |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 11/04 | SD Portmany Spain Tercera Group 11 |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 01/04 | Rotlet Molinar Spain Tercera Group 11 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 28/03 | Collerense Spain Tercera Group 11 |
2-3 | 2-4 | 1 | 10 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CE Constancia vs Alcudia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CE Constancia win (58%). Probabilities: CE Constancia 58%, draw 22%, Alcudia 20%.
How many goals are expected in CE Constancia vs Alcudia?
The model expects 3.19 goals (CE Constancia 2.05 · Alcudia 1.14), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in CE Constancia vs Alcudia?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.