Football · Spain Tercera Group 11 · 19/09, 19:00

Prediction: Alcudia vs Santanyi

Team pages: Santanyi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Alcudia1.74

Santanyi1.19

1X2

49% 27% 25%

Alcudia Draw Santanyi

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Alcudia 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLLDWDLWW

Santanyi 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLDDWLDD

Head-to-head

Alcudia 2–1–3 Santanyi (6 last)

Alcudia1-1Santanyi
Santanyi3-2Alcudia
Alcudia1-0Santanyi
Santanyi3-0Alcudia
Santanyi1-0Alcudia
Alcudia2-1Santanyi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alcudia 1492 · Santanyi 1486

	Alcudia	Draw	Santanyi
Our model	49%	26%	25%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Santanyi: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alcudia	Santanyi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.7	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1.7	0 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/0/67%	0/33/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4	1.5 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.3	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.30

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:21 +35’	1.85	3.30	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alcudia 2–1–3 Santanyi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Spain Tercera Group 11	Alcudia	1-1	Santanyi
11/11/25 Spain Tercera Group 11	Santanyi	3-2	Alcudia
08/03/25 Spain Tercera Group 11	Alcudia	1-0	Santanyi
26/10/24 Spain Tercera Group 11	Santanyi	3-0	Alcudia
09/03/24 Spain Tercera Group 11	Santanyi	1-0	Alcudia
21/10/23 Spain Tercera Group 11	Alcudia	2-1	Santanyi

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 11

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alcudia	2	2	0	0	7	1	6
2	PE Sant Jordi	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
3	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
4	Manacor	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
5	CE Constancia	2	1	1	0	4	1	4
6	Formentera	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
7	CD Cardassar	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
8	Mercadal	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
9	Llosetense	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
10	UE Porreres	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
11	CE Andratx	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
12	Santanyi	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
13	Platges de Calvia	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
14	Binissalem	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
15	CD Migjorn	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
16	CE Sineu	2	0	0	2	2	6	0
17	UD Arenal	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
18	Inter Ibiza	2	0	0	2	0	7	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alcudia	Santanyi
Felanitx	2-0 W	1-2 L
SCR Pena Deportiva	2-2 D	2-1 W
SD Portmany	1-3 L	1-1 D
Rotlet Molinar	1-2 L	2-2 D
Collerense	2-4 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Santanyi (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alcudia

DLLLDWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	UD Arenal Spain Tercera Group 11	2-1	2-1	7	4	W
06/09	Inter Ibiza Spain Tercera Group 11	–	5-0	–	–	W
10/05	Mercadal Spain Tercera Group 11	–	2-3	–	–	L
03/05	Binissalem Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/04	Felanitx Spain Tercera Group 11	–	2-0	–	–	W
18/04	SCR Pena Deportiva Spain Tercera Group 11	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/04	SD Portmany Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-3	–	–	L
01/04	Rotlet Molinar Spain Tercera Group 11	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
28/03	Collerense Spain Tercera Group 11	2-3	2-4	1	10	L
21/03	Santanyi Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-1	–	–	D

Santanyi

DWLLDDWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	CE Constancia Spain Tercera Group 11	0-1	1-1	6	8	D
06/09	CD Cardassar Spain Tercera Group 11	–	0-0	–	–	D
10/05	Felanitx Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/05	SCR Pena Deportiva Spain Tercera Group 11	–	2-1	–	–	W
26/04	SD Portmany Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-1	–	–	D
18/04	Rotlet Molinar Spain Tercera Group 11	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/04	Collerense Spain Tercera Group 11	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
01/04	CE Constancia Spain Tercera Group 11	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
28/03	CD Son Cladera Spain Tercera Group 11	–	4-0	–	–	W
21/03	Alcudia Spain Tercera Group 11	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alcudia vs Santanyi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alcudia win (49%). Probabilities: Alcudia 49%, draw 27%, Santanyi 25%.

How many goals are expected in Alcudia vs Santanyi?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Alcudia 1.74 · Santanyi 1.19), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Alcudia vs Santanyi?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.