Football · Spain Tercera Group 2 · 13/09, 18:00

Prediction: Caudal vs UC Ceares

Team pages: Caudal · UC Ceares

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Caudal1.93

UC Ceares0.73

1X2

65% 23% 13%

Caudal Draw UC Ceares

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Caudal 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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UC Ceares 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Caudal 2–2–2 UC Ceares (6 last)

UC Ceares1-0Caudal
Caudal2-2UC Ceares
Caudal1-0UC Ceares
UC Ceares0-3Caudal
UC Ceares2-0Caudal
Caudal0-0UC Ceares

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Caudal 1551 · UC Ceares 1492

	Caudal	Draw	UC Ceares
Our model	65%	23%	12%
Market	65%	22%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caudal (rating 1551 vs 1492).
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Caudal	UC Ceares
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.7	1.4 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.8 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/67/0%	17/17/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.5	1.8 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.00

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Pinn 1.39
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.17 ★
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.7% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:39 +4’	1.36	4.00	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:13 +89’	1.39	4.17	6.84

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Caudal 2–2–2 UC Ceares

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 2	UC Ceares	1-0 HT 0-0	Caudal
07/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	Caudal	2-2	UC Ceares
11/05/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	Caudal	1-0 HT 1-0	UC Ceares
12/01/25 Spain Tercera Group 2	UC Ceares	0-3 HT 0-0	Caudal
16/03/24 Spain Tercera Group 2	UC Ceares	2-0 HT 1-0	Caudal
29/10/23 Spain Tercera Group 2	Caudal	0-0 HT 0-0	UC Ceares

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mosconia	1	1	0	5	1	3
2	Covadonga	1	1	0	4	0	3
3	Caudal	1	1	0	3	0	3
4	Gijon Industrial	1	1	0	2	0	3
5	CD Colunga	1	1	0	2	1	3
5	Sporting Gijon B	1	1	0	2	1	3
5	UC Ceares	1	1	0	2	1	3
8	Lealtad	1	1	0	1	0	3
8	Condal	1	1	0	1	0	3
10	Andes CF	1	0	1	1	2	0
10	Praviano	1	0	1	1	2	0
10	UP Langreo	1	0	1	1	2	0
13	Siero	1	0	1	0	1	0
13	L'Entregu CF	1	0	1	0	1	0
15	El San Martin	1	0	1	0	2	0
16	Astur	1	0	1	0	3	0
17	Llanes	1	0	1	1	5	0
18	Aviles Stadium CF	1	0	1	0	4	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Caudal	UC Ceares
Siero	0-1 L	2-0 W
SD Navarro CF	2-1 W	3-0 W
Gijon Industrial	4-1 W	1-2 L
Praviano	1-0 W	3-2 W
Lenense	4-1 W	2-4 L
El San Martin	0-1 L	0-1 L
Covadonga	2-1 W	1-6 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Caudal (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Caudal

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Astur Spain Tercera Group 2	2-0	3-0	3	1	W
17/05	Sporting Gijon B Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
10/05	Tuilla Spain Tercera Group 2	–	3-1	–	–	W
03/05	Siero Spain Tercera Group 2	–	0-1	–	–	L
26/04	SD Navarro CF Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-1	–	–	W
19/04	Gijon Industrial Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	4-1	7	2	W
12/04	Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-0	–	–	W
02/04	Lenense Spain Tercera Group 2	2-0	4-1	5	4	W
28/03	El San Martin Spain Tercera Group 2	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
22/03	Covadonga Spain Tercera Group 2	1-1	2-1	3	6	W

UC Ceares

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	UP Langreo Spain Tercera Group 2	2-1	2-1	1	8	W
10/05	Siero Spain Tercera Group 2	–	2-0	–	–	W
03/05	SD Navarro CF Spain Tercera Group 2	–	3-0	–	–	W
26/04	Gijon Industrial Spain Tercera Group 2	–	1-2	–	–	L
18/04	Praviano Spain Tercera Group 2	–	3-2	–	–	W
12/04	Lenense Spain Tercera Group 2	2-2	2-4	0	5	L
03/04	El San Martin Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
28/03	Covadonga Spain Tercera Group 2	1-4	1-6	6	1	L
22/03	Aviles Stadium CF Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
15/03	UD Llanera Spain Tercera Group 2	0-1	0-2	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Caudal vs UC Ceares?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Caudal win (65%). Probabilities: Caudal 65%, draw 23%, UC Ceares 13%.

How many goals are expected in Caudal vs UC Ceares?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Caudal 1.93 · UC Ceares 0.73), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Caudal vs UC Ceares?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.