Football · Spain Tercera Group 10 · 20/09, 20:00

Prediction: Conil CF vs Cadiz Mirandilla

Team pages: Conil CF · Cadiz Mirandilla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.02Total

Conil CF1.04

Cadiz Mirandilla0.99

1X2

36% 31% 33%

Conil CF Draw Cadiz Mirandilla

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Conil CF 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWWLWL

Cadiz Mirandilla 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DDWDLDWLDD

Head-to-head

Conil CF 1–1–2 Cadiz Mirandilla (4 last)

Cadiz Mirandilla0-1Conil CF
Conil CF0-2Cadiz Mirandilla
Cadiz Mirandilla1-1Conil CF
Conil CF1-2Cadiz Mirandilla

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Conil CF 1550 · Cadiz Mirandilla 1488

	Conil CF	Draw	Cadiz Mirandilla
Our model	35%	33%	32%
Market	37%	29%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Conil CF (rating 1550 vs 1488).
H2H favours Cadiz Mirandilla: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Conil CF	Cadiz Mirandilla
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	1.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	0/57/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.5	1.7 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.10

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:56 +2’	2.45	3.10	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Conil CF 1–1–2 Cadiz Mirandilla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/02/26 Spain Tercera Group 10	Cadiz Mirandilla	0-1 HT 0-0	Conil CF
28/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 10	Conil CF	0-2 HT 0-0	Cadiz Mirandilla
27/01/19 Spain Tercera Group 10	Cadiz Mirandilla	1-1 HT 1-0	Conil CF
23/09/18 Spain Tercera Group 10	Conil CF	1-2	Cadiz Mirandilla

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 10

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Betis Deportivo C	3	2	1	0	9	5	7
2	Racing Portuense	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
3	CD Egabrense	2	2	0	0	7	3	6
4	Xerez Deportivo FC	3	2	0	1	4	3	6
5	AD Ceuta FC B	3	1	1	1	3	4	4
6	Dos Hermanas CF 1971	2	1	1	0	3	0	4
7	Chiclana	3	1	1	1	2	2	4
8	Pozoblanco	2	1	0	1	3	1	3
9	CD Utrera	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
10	Conil CF	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
11	RB Linense	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
12	Atletico Onubense	3	1	0	2	4	7	3
13	Cadiz Mirandilla	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
14	Cordoba B	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
14	UD Tomares	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
16	CD San Roque de Lepe	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
17	Bollullos CF	3	0	1	2	3	6	1
18	Sevilla C	2	0	0	2	2	5	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Conil CF	Cadiz Mirandilla
Pozoblanco	1-0 W	1-1 D
RB Linense	0-2 L	0-0 D
Atletico Onubense	3-2 W	1-0 W
CD San Roque de Lepe	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Conil CF (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Conil CF

WLWLWWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	CD Utrera Spain Tercera Group 10	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
05/09	Pozoblanco Spain Tercera Group 10	–	1-0	–	–	W
10/05	RB Linense Spain Tercera Group 10	–	0-2	–	–	L
03/05	Atletico Onubense Spain Tercera Group 10	1-2	3-2	7	3	W
26/04	Pozoblanco Spain Tercera Group 10	–	1-0	–	–	W
19/04	CD San Roque de Lepe Spain Tercera Group 10	0-0	1-0	7	9	W
12/04	Castilleja CF Spain Tercera Group 10	1-2	1-3	6	3	L
05/04	Coria CF Spain Tercera Group 10	–	4-2	–	–	W
28/03	AD Ceuta FC B Spain Tercera Group 10	–	0-1	–	–	L
22/03	Cordoba B Spain Tercera Group 10	–	2-1	–	–	W

Cadiz Mirandilla

DDWDLDWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Dos Hermanas CF 1971 Spain Tercera Group 10	0-0	0-0	4	9	D
06/09	UD Tomares Spain Tercera Group 10	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
10/05	UD Tomares Spain Tercera Group 10	0-1	1-2	0	6	L
03/05	Ciudad Lucena Spain Tercera Group 10	–	3-0	–	–	W
26/04	Bollullos CF Spain Tercera Group 10	–	2-2	–	–	D
19/04	Sevilla C Spain Tercera Group 10	0-2	0-2	3	3	L
12/04	RB Linense Spain Tercera Group 10	–	0-0	–	–	D
05/04	Atletico Onubense Spain Tercera Group 10	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
29/03	Pozoblanco Spain Tercera Group 10	0-1	1-1	5	8	D
22/03	CD San Roque de Lepe Spain Tercera Group 10	0-0	1-1	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Conil CF vs Cadiz Mirandilla?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Conil CF win (36%). Probabilities: Conil CF 36%, draw 31%, Cadiz Mirandilla 33%.

How many goals are expected in Conil CF vs Cadiz Mirandilla?

The model expects 2.02 goals (Conil CF 1.04 · Cadiz Mirandilla 0.99), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Conil CF vs Cadiz Mirandilla?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.