Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 21/08, 19:30

Prediction: Aldosivi vs Union Santa Fe

Team pages: Aldosivi · Union Santa Fe

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.1Total

Aldosivi1

Union Santa Fe1.1

1X2

31% 32% 36%

Aldosivi Draw Union Santa Fe

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Aldosivi 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDWDLLLD

Union Santa Fe 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DDWLLDLWLL

Head-to-head

Aldosivi 2–1–3 Union Santa Fe (6 last)

Union Santa Fe1-0Aldosivi
Union Santa Fe0-2Aldosivi
Aldosivi2-1Union Santa Fe
Union Santa Fe0-0Aldosivi
Aldosivi1-2Union Santa Fe
Aldosivi1-3Union Santa Fe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aldosivi 1463 · Union Santa Fe 1453

	Aldosivi	Draw	Union Santa Fe
Our model	31%	33%	36%
Market	31%	32%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.1 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Union Santa Fe: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aldosivi	Union Santa Fe
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.3	1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.4	2.4 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	5.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.00

X2.88

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.37 ★
X	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 3.00
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
05:02 +7’	3.00	2.88	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:17	3.48	3.00	2.33
10:20	3.37▼	3.00	2.38▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aldosivi 2–1–3 Union Santa Fe

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/02/26 Argentina Liga Profesional	Union Santa Fe	1-0 HT 0-0	Aldosivi
04/10/25 Argentina Liga Profesional	Union Santa Fe	0-2 HT 0-0	Aldosivi
27/03/25 Argentina Liga Profesional	Aldosivi	2-1 HT 1-0	Union Santa Fe
29/08/22 Argentina Liga Profesional	Union Santa Fe	0-0 HT 0-0	Aldosivi
02/10/21 Argentina Liga Profesional	Aldosivi	1-2 HT 1-1	Union Santa Fe
04/01/21 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional	Aldosivi	1-3 HT 0-1	Union Santa Fe

Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Argentinos Jrs	4	4	0	0	9	3	12
2	Belgrano	5	3	1	1	6	2	10
3	Barracas Central	4	3	0	1	3	2	9
4	Gimnasia LP	5	3	0	2	6	7	9
5	CA Tigre	5	2	2	1	4	2	8
6	Huracan	4	2	1	1	4	2	7
7	Rosario Central	4	2	1	1	4	3	7
8	Independiente Rivadavia	5	2	1	2	5	6	7
9	Banfield	5	2	1	2	4	5	7
10	Sarmiento	4	2	0	2	8	8	6
11	Atlético Tucumán	4	1	2	1	3	2	5
12	Racing Club	5	1	1	3	4	7	4
13	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto	4	1	1	2	2	5	4
14	Aldosivi	5	0	2	3	3	6	2
15	River Plate	4	0	0	4	0	4	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aldosivi	Union Santa Fe
Independiente Rivadavia	1-1 D	2-1 W
Belgrano	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Aldosivi

LDLDWDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
08/08	Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
02/08	Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
29/07	Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-1	8	2	L
24/07	Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
18/07	River Plate Argentina Cup	2-0	3-1	2	2	W
03/05	Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
26/04	River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-3	1	5	L
19/04	Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
11/04	Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-1	2	7	L

Union Santa Fe

DDWLLDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
11/08	Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-2	8	6	L
07/08	Lanus TEST Fixtures	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
01/08	Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
25/07	Platense Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	2-2	2	5	D
23/05	CA Independiente Argentina Cup	0-2	0-2	1	9	L
13/05	Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-2	7	4	L
10/05	Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
02/05	CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-1	8	8	D
27/04	Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional	1-2	2-2	4	10	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aldosivi vs Union Santa Fe?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Union Santa Fe win (36%). Probabilities: Aldosivi 31%, draw 32%, Union Santa Fe 36%.

How many goals are expected in Aldosivi vs Union Santa Fe?

The model expects 2.1 goals (Aldosivi 1 · Union Santa Fe 1.1), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Aldosivi vs Union Santa Fe?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.